David Mirkovic’s name is already showing up in places that usually get reserved for the can’t-miss types.
After a summer and fall filled with noise around the Illinois forward, NBA Draft expert Sam Vecenie put Mirkovic in the first round of his 2027 mock draft, sending him No. 16 to the Indiana Pacers. In the same projection, freshman guard Quentin Coleman went No. 7 to the Atlanta Hawks.
The buzz around Mirkovic has only grown despite the foot fracture that required surgery and an extended recovery process. Illinois coaches, teammates and analysts have kept piling on the praise, and Vecenie’s read on it all is that Mirkovic “is as good as any player” the Illini have had during Brad Underwood's tenure in Champaign.
That’s saying plenty from a program that has rolled out Ayo Dosunmu, Kofi Cockburn, Terrence Shannon Jr., Keaton Wagler and more.
Vecenie said the injury nudged his view a bit, but not by much. Before the setback, he likely would have pegged Mirkovic as his Preseason Player of the Year pick, not just in the Big Ten but in the country. Even now, he still sees him as an All-American and a first-round NBA talent.
The case for Mirkovic starts with the kind of freshman season that turns heads: 13.3 points, 8.0 rebounds and 2.6 assists in under 30 minutes per game. The expectation is that he’ll be even better this season. But the draft question hanging over him is a simple one - how far can his game travel when the athletes get bigger, faster and longer?
Athleticism is the sticking point. Vertically and laterally, Mirkovic sits below NBA standards, and that creates obvious issues on defense. At 6-foot-9, he’s not quite built to guard NBA 5s, and most 4s in the league are too quick for him to stay in front of.
Still, he’s not a defensive zero waiting to happen. He has the strength of an ox, plus length and elite anticipation, and he competes hard. That gives him a path to survive against most undersized 5s and maybe hold up against 4s who aren’t elite shooters or cutters.
The offensive projection is where things get more interesting. Mirkovic’s first step and his finishing at the rim are the two pressure points.
In college, he’s quick enough to gain a step, then uses his frame to keep that advantage and get to the basket. NBA defenders are going to make that a lot harder.
His touch around the rim is real, and so is his bag as a finisher. But so much of it depends on creating space and finding an angle in the first place. There’s a reason scouts will keep circling the same concern: his athleticism won’t hand him easy looks at the next level.
And yet the rest of the package is hard to ignore. Mirkovic shot 37.5 percent from three as a freshman.
He’s an elite playmaker from the post, mid-post and perimeter. He’s one of the best rebounders in college basketball even without explosive leaping ability.
That combination matters in a league that has increasingly rewarded production over pure projection. The old habit of betting on a raw athlete and hoping the rest comes later isn’t as common anymore. If Mirkovic can help lead Illinois to a strong season, keep the shooting efficiency intact and get even a little lighter on his feet, he’ll have the kind of résumé that fits in the first round.
The size, the shooting, the passing, the feel for the game - it’s all there. The lingering issue is still the same one: the athletic limitations are real, and they may keep him from going too high, even in a draft class that looks wide open. Vecenie, though, already has him in the first round.
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