When Illinois and Tennessee square off in the Music City Bowl on December 30 at Nissan Stadium, it's not just another postseason matchup - it's a clash of two programs that opened the year with College Football Playoff aspirations and now find themselves trying to cap 8-4 seasons with a statement win.
Two Teams, Similar Records, Different Roads
Both the Illini and the Vols arrive in Nashville with identical 8-4 records, but the paths they took to get here tell different stories. Tennessee’s four losses came exclusively against ranked opponents - Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Vanderbilt - a brutal gauntlet by any measure. Illinois, meanwhile, dropped games to ranked Indiana and Ohio State, but also stumbled against unranked Washington and Wisconsin, showing some inconsistency along the way.
Key Absences on Both Sides
Bowl season always brings roster shakeups, and this one’s no different. Illinois will be without edge rusher Gabe Jacas and offensive lineman JC Davis, both opting out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Defensive back Xavier Scott, who hasn’t played since Week 3 due to injury, remains sidelined.
Tennessee’s biggest loss? Wide receiver Chriss Brazell II.
With over 1,000 receiving yards and nine touchdowns this season, Brazell has been a go-to weapon for the Vols and will be tough to replace. He’s also heading to the NFL Draft.
Quarterback Duel: Altmyer vs. Aguilar
This game features two quarterbacks who have quietly put together impressive seasons and could light up the scoreboard in Nashville.
Illinois’ Luke Altmyer has been steady and efficient. The junior completed 68.1% of his passes for 2,811 yards and 21 touchdowns, with just five interceptions.
He’s added four scores on the ground and has shown the ability to spread the wealth - nine different Illini receivers have caught touchdown passes from him this season. Collin Dixon leads the team with five TD grabs, while Hank Beatty has been the volume guy with 64 catches for 826 yards.
On the other side, Joey Aguilar has brought a big-play element to Tennessee’s offense in his first season in Knoxville. The former Appalachian State standout threw for 3,444 yards and 24 touchdowns, though his 10 interceptions show he’s not afraid to take risks.
Aguilar has topped 300 yards in four games this season, but he’s also had four games with multiple picks. With Brazell out, expect Braylon Staley (64 catches, 806 yards, six TDs) and Mike Mathews (50 catches, 770 yards, four TDs) to take on larger roles.
Passing Defenses That Leave the Door Wide Open
If you’re a fan of defense, this might not be your game. Both teams rank near the bottom of their respective conferences in pass defense - Tennessee sits 15th in the SEC, and Illinois is 15th in the 18-team Big Ten. With two quarterbacks who can sling it and secondaries that have struggled, don’t be surprised if this turns into a shootout.
Running the Rock
Illinois leans on a two-headed backfield featuring Ca’Lil Valentine and Kaden Feagin. Valentine leads the team with 549 rushing yards and four touchdowns, while Feagin has added 499 yards and seven scores. The Illini average 131.2 rushing yards per game and have 20 rushing touchdowns as a team.
Tennessee, though, brings a more explosive ground game. DeSean Bishop has been the workhorse, racking up 983 yards and 14 touchdowns on 163 carries. Star Thomas and Peyton Lewis round out a deep backfield that’s helped the Vols average 174.8 rushing yards per game and punch in 32 touchdowns on the ground.
Defensive Playmakers (and Concerns)
The Illini will be missing their top pass rusher in Jacas, but they still bring a defense that knows how to create chaos - they lead the Big Ten with 16 forced fumbles and are giving up just 23.2 points per game. Their run defense has held its own, and they’ll need to be sharp against Tennessee’s multi-layered rushing attack.
Tennessee’s defense has been more boom-or-bust. The Vols lead the SEC with 20 forced fumbles and have totaled 36 sacks, with Dominic Bailey (5.5 sacks), Joshua Josephs, and Caleb Herring (four sacks each) doing the heavy lifting up front. But they’re also giving up 28.8 points per game, and their secondary has been vulnerable all season.
Special Teams Edge
If this one comes down to a kick, Illinois might have the edge. David Alano has been reliable, knocking through 85% of his field goal attempts and showing range from 50-plus. Tennessee’s Max Gilbert has hit 77% of his tries - solid, but not quite at Alano’s level.
What to Watch For
The line favors Tennessee by 4.5, and that feels like a fair reflection of where things stand - especially with the Vols’ offensive firepower. But Illinois has the tools to make this interesting. If Altmyer can stay efficient, if the Illini can establish the run, and if their defense continues to force turnovers, they’ll have a shot.
Tennessee’s X-factor is Aguilar. If he’s on, and the Vols’ receivers step up in Brazell’s absence, they could overwhelm Illinois through the air. But if the Illini can pressure him into mistakes and control the tempo, we could be in for a tight one.
This one has the makings of a high-scoring, back-and-forth bowl game - a fitting end to two seasons that didn’t go as planned, but still have one more chapter to write.