The Big Ten season is officially underway, and while Illinois won’t tip off its league slate until next Tuesday with a road test at Ohio State, the race for the conference crown is already heating up. Tuesday night marks the start of Big Ten play for several contenders, with Iowa, Michigan State, Purdue, Rutgers, USC, and Oregon all stepping into the ring.
Illinois enters the fray with expectations that are high-but measured. The Illini were picked to finish fourth in the Big Ten preseason media poll, slotted behind Purdue, Michigan, and UCLA.
And that’s still where they stand in the eyes of the latest AP Top 25 and most advanced metrics. Purdue, Michigan, and Michigan State have all cracked the national top 10, while Illinois, Indiana, and USC are holding firm in the teens and twenties.
Through eight games, Illinois has mostly lived up to the billing. They’ve shown flashes of being one of the Big Ten’s elite, but the analytics suggest a slight cooling off.
After a statement win over Texas Tech, KenPom projections had Illinois finishing 15-5 in conference play. That number has since dipped to 13-7-still strong, and still good enough for a projected fourth-place finish.
But it’s a reminder of how thin the margin is in a league this deep.
Purdue came into the season as the runaway favorite, but Michigan has quickly emerged as a legitimate threat to that throne. The Wolverines’ dominant run through Feast Week vaulted them into the national conversation, and their current projection of a 17-3 Big Ten record puts them a full four games ahead of Illinois. That’s a significant early gap-and a clear signal of how high the standard might be this year.
For Illinois, the path forward is all about the start. Their opening stretch in Big Ten play is manageable, and they’ll need to capitalize.
After the Ohio State game, they’ll face Nebraska, then roll into matchups with Penn State and Rutgers around the New Year. It’s a stretch where Illinois should be favored in five or six of their first seven conference games.
That’s the kind of runway you want before February hits-and the schedule gets a whole lot tougher.
Head coach Brad Underwood has already delivered one Big Ten regular-season title during his time in Champaign, and while another may be a long shot this season given the strength at the top, Illinois still has a clear path to stay in the mix. The key?
Take care of business early. Secure a top-four seed in the Big Ten Tournament.
And keep themselves within striking distance as the season grinds on.
This team has the pieces. Now it’s about putting them together when it matters most.