Illinois is about to find out a lot about itself on Saturday, and Duke running back Nate Sheppard is the reason why.
On paper, Duke might not jump out as the kind of opponent that turns heads in college football. Basketball usually owns the conversation when the Blue Devils come up. But this version of Duke brings a weapon that should have Illinois paying close attention: Sheppard, who is already looking like one of the more dangerous backs in the sport.
Sheppard’s Week 1 performance against Tulane earned him Doak Walker Running Back of the Week honors, and the numbers behind it were loud. He ripped off 227 yards and two touchdowns on 35 carries, averaging 6.5 yards per attempt.
Even more striking, 165 of those yards came after contact, according to Cam Mellor of Pro Football Network. That kind of balance-breaking production is exactly the sort of thing that exposes a defense if the tackling isn’t sharp.
Illinois did not exactly set the standard in that area in Week 1. Against UAB, the Illini were credited with, in the writer’s words, a total of 16 missed tackles. That’s a problem on any Saturday, but it becomes a much bigger one when the next opponent has a back like Sheppard waiting to punish every clean look that turns into a bad angle.
The scary part is that this isn’t some one-game spike. Sheppard has been producing since he arrived.
As a freshman, he logged 200 carries for 1,132 yards and 11 touchdowns. He was not on the Doak Walker preseason watch list, then turned around and won the Week 1 award anyway.
He’s also come a long way from his early days. In the first three games of his college career, including the matchup with Illinois, Sheppard had just 15 carries total.
Against the Illini, he managed five carries for 24 yards. But after that, the breakout arrived.
He never dipped below 12 carries in a game again, and he put together five games with at least 90 rushing yards.
That’s what makes this matchup such a clean measuring stick for Illinois before Big Ten play begins. Duke’s backfield threat is real, and the Illini’s tackling has already been called into question. Saturday should show exactly where this defense stands when it runs into a runner who can break tackles and keep coming.
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