ESPN’s Football Power Index has Illinois sitting at No. 39 in the country for 2026, and the model’s game-by-game outlook paints a season that looks solid, if not spectacular, for Bret Bielema’s group.
The Illini open with what FPI sees as a comfortable warmup against an AAC opponent, then move into a stretch that includes Duke, SIU, Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State and Oregon. Illinois is projected to handle the early nonconference work, and the Duke game comes with the note that there’s “No Darian Mensah for Duke, no problem for Illinois.”
SIU, an FCS team, is coming off a season in which it gave Purdue some trouble, but Illinois is expected to be a different kind of challenge. The same goes for Purdue itself, even on the road. The Boilermakers are coming off a winless Big Ten season, and while the game is in West Lafayette, FPI still leans heavily toward the Illini.
The biggest early test comes at Ohio State, where Illinois is trying to do something it hasn’t done since 2007: win in Columbus. FPI gives the Buckeyes the edge, and the source of that confidence is clear: “There are two reasons the answer is a hard no: Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith. (But then again: 4.6 percent?)”
Michigan State, with Pat Fitzgerald now in charge, is another game where Illinois is favored. The Spartans are described as thin on talent, and Year 1 under Fitzgerald is not expected to be the moment they flip the script in East Lansing.
Then comes Oregon, which is expected to bring a rough day to Champaign. The Ducks are set to visit Illinois for the first time since 1993, but the projection doesn’t see much drama. FPI expects Oregon to leave with its second blowout win over Illinois in the last three seasons.
After that, the schedule turns into a series of games that could decide whether the Illini land in the 7-5 range or push a bit higher. Maryland is viewed as a live road challenge, with Mike Locksley’s younger roster described as improving.
Nebraska is another tricky one, even if the skepticism around the Cornhuskers remains obvious. The source calls the continued optimism in Lincoln “confusing, to say the least,” and notes that Nebraska has not finished above .500 in Big Ten play in a decade.
Illinois also gets UCLA in Los Angeles, and while the Bruins are not expected to be a pushover, the matchup is against what the source calls the lesser of the two Big Ten programs in Southern California. Still, the Illini’s previous West Coast trips haven’t gone well, with losses at Oregon in 2024 and at Washington last season.
Back home, Iowa looks like one of the tougher stylistic matchups on the slate. The Hawkeyes are expected to be strong on defense again, and their run game could test an Illinois defense built to slow passing attacks. Even so, the game is projected as close, especially with Illinois at home.
The regular season closes with Northwestern, and that one is expected to be tight too. David Braun has made the Wildcats more competitive, and the last three meetings have all been decided by fewer than 10 points. Playing in Evanston could make it even tighter, though Illinois is still given a slight edge.
The broader expectation is that Illinois takes a step back in 2026 because of personnel losses and coaching turnover. Still, the projection is not a collapse. The Illini are expected to be good enough for at least a 7-5 finish, with 8-4 also in the range.
In Other News...
Brad Underwood Is Already Chasing Illinois Next Frontcourt Anchor
Illinois is already looking past the current frontcourt cycle, and that is no small thing for a program that has leaned on size to shape its identity. With the Ivisic brothers moving toward graduation and David Mirkovic potentially headed for the NBA Draft, Brad Underwood and his staff are doing what good staffs do - lining up the next wave before the roster churn arrives.
One of the names now on the radar is Benjamin Berrouet, a rising national prospect from Dallas who has drawn major attention from across the country. Illinois sees a player whose size and style could fit the same lane Mirkovic occupies now, but the Illini are hardly alone in that evaluation, which means this one could turn into a real recruiting fight before it settles into anything more concrete. [Read more 🡒]
Shauna Green May Have Found Illinois Next Frontcourt Cornerstone
Shauna Green has spent the offseason continuing to shape Illinois into a team with real size inside, and the early signs suggest the frontcourt may be the next area to take another step. Berry Wallace and Cearah Parchment already give the Illini a solid interior base, but the program is also looking ahead, and that means identifying the kind of post presence that can fit alongside a perimeter-heavy attack.
One name to watch is Eve Fowler, a highly regarded center from Sage Hill in Newport Beach who has already drawn an Illinois scholarship offer. Fowlers profile points to the kind of player who can anchor the paint with post scoring and defense, traits that would make her a natural complement to what Green is building. With Wallace set to move on eventually, Illinois is clearly thinking beyond the present and trying to line up its next frontcourt cornerstone before the need becomes urgent. [Read more 🡒]
Illinois Still Has One Huge Stefan Vaaks Question To Answer
The Big Tens lead-guard picture for 2026-27 is starting to take shape, and Illinois has a name right in the middle of it. Stefan Vaaks is being sized up alongside the conferences best ball-handlers, a sign of how much attention his game is already drawing before he has even settled into his next role in Champaign. For Illinois, the appeal is obvious: a guard with enough skill and versatility to matter in a league that is expected to lean heavily on perimeter creators again.
What still makes Vaaks such a fascinating puzzle is how Illinois will actually deploy him. The conversation around him is not just about whether he belongs near the top of the Big Tens lead-guard group, but whether he becomes the primary organizer or spends time working both on and off the ball. However the Illini choose to use him, that decision could shape the way their offense looks next season, and it is the kind of detail that will tell a lot about how high his ceiling really goes. [Read more 🡒]