Brad Underwood has Illinois basketball sitting on a remarkably steady perch heading into the 2026-27 season.
The Illini open the year at No. 3 in the country, and an EvanMiya.com projection study only reinforced how little room there may be for this team to drift. After 10,000 season simulations across 365 college basketball teams, Illinois landed second among the programs with the least uncertainty.
That kind of projection matters because it puts hard numbers around the range of outcomes. Illinois’ best-case finish is No. 1 nationally, its median outcome is No. 4, and its floor is No. 16.
For a team that reached the Final Four the year before, starting near the top of the rankings is no surprise. But the floor stands out. Even with some early concerns on the roster, Illinois is still projected to stay in a strong national range.
David Mirkovic is on the mend, and that could make the early stretch more difficult, especially against elite opponents. A few non-conference losses might happen, but the projection suggests they should not send the Illini tumbling too far.
The broader picture is what really separates Illinois under Underwood. The program is now on a run of six straight NCAA Tournament appearances. It has been ranked in the AP Top 25 at some point in each of the last eight seasons, and it has finished ranked in the AP Top 25 in five of the last seven seasons leading into this one.
The consistency has shown up in the win column, too. Underwood has guided Illinois to seven straight 20-win seasons, and the Illini have posted at least 11 Big Ten wins in each of the last seven seasons.
Put those trends next to a projected ceiling of No. 1 and a floor of No. 16, and the message is clear: Illinois is not just good in one isolated season. It has become a program that keeps showing up at a high level year after year.
Underwood has turned Illinois into one of the most dependable teams in college basketball.
In Other News...
Illinois Just Landed At The Center Of The Big Ten Debate
The early chatter around the 2026-27 Big Ten race already has Illinois sitting in an enviable spot, with preseason projections placing the Illini at the top of the conference. It is the sort of opening forecast that immediately frames the league conversation, especially in a Big Ten where the margin between first place and the next contender is usually razor thin.
Michigan State is pegged as the nearest challenger, which only sharpens the spotlight on Illinois as the rest of the league gets sorted into performance tiers and NCAA Tournament possibilities. The projections are still just that, projections, but they give the Illini a prominent place in a conference picture that also includes a handful of teams expected to be in the mix and others bracing for a tougher spring. [Read more 🡒]
Berry Wallace Is Giving Illinois Fans A Bigger Reason To Dream
Berry Wallaces rise has given Illinois womens basketball another layer of intrigue heading into the new season, and now the junior forward has added a national honor to the growing list. Wallace was named to the 20-player preseason watchlist for the Cheryl Miller Small Forward of the Year Award, a recognition that fits the kind of leap she made as a sophomore and the role she is expected to carry in her third year with the program.
For Shauna Greens team, the selection is more than a nod to one players progress. Wallace is the first Illinois player under Green to land on this watchlist, a sign that her impact is reaching beyond the Big Ten after earning First Team all-conference honors last season. It also gives Illini fans another reason to believe the ceiling for this group could be even higher if Wallace keeps building on what she showed a year ago. [Read more 🡒]
Can Blake Fagbemi Force His Way Into Illinois Crowded Backcourt
Blake Fagbemi enters his second season at Illinois with the kind of rsum that does not show up much in box scores but can still matter on a veteran-heavy roster. The freshman guard spent most of his first year in a limited role, yet he got the benefit of being around a team that made a Final Four run, and that kind of exposure can speed up the learning curve for a player whose strengths already fit a coachs trust list.
The challenge now is finding a path into a crowded backcourt where minutes will be hard to come by. Fagbemi brings quickness, basketball IQ and a defensive edge that Illinois values, along with enough playmaking ability to keep him in the conversation, but he still has to turn that behind-the-scenes promise into something more visible when the rotation tightens. [Read more 🡒]