Texans Surge into AFC South Race with Division Lead in Sight
After 15 weeks of football, the AFC South is shaping up to be one of the tightest division races in the league-and the Houston Texans are right in the thick of it. Riding a red-hot six-game win streak, Houston has clawed its way back into contention, sitting at 9-5 and just one game behind the division-leading Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4). With three games left on the schedule, the Texans are knocking on the door-and they might just kick it open this Sunday.
Let’s set the stage: Houston hosts the struggling Las Vegas Raiders (2-12) at NRG Stadium this weekend. A win there would be their seventh straight and, more importantly, their 10th of the season-pulling them even with Jacksonville in the win column.
But that’s only half the equation. To leapfrog the Jaguars in the standings, the Texans will need a little help from the Denver Broncos, who host Jacksonville later that afternoon.
Why the Broncos Matter
Denver, sitting in prime position for the AFC’s top seed, has every reason to come out firing against the Jags. If the Broncos handle their business at Mile High and hand Jacksonville their fifth loss, the AFC South lead could shift-at least temporarily-to Houston.
Now, it’s not as simple as just matching records. The NFL’s tiebreaker system comes into play when teams are deadlocked, and this one’s a bit of a puzzle. Here's how it breaks down between Houston and Jacksonville:
- Head-to-head: Split 1-1.
- Division record: Nearly identical.
- Common opponents: Still close.
- Conference record: Again, no clear edge.
- Strength of victory: Advantage Houston (.460 to .429).
- Strength of schedule: Houston’s faced the fourth-toughest slate; Jacksonville’s is ranked 13th.
So while most categories are neck-and-neck, Houston currently holds the edge in both strength of victory and strength of schedule-two key metrics that could tip the scales in their favor if the teams finish tied at 10-5 after this weekend.
The Road Ahead
Should everything fall into place-Texans win, Jaguars lose-Houston would vault into the AFC South’s top spot and move from the No. 7 seed to No. 3 in the playoff picture. That’s a massive swing, especially considering what’s coming next: matchups against the Chargers and Colts. Both teams are limping into the final stretch, and if Houston keeps its foot on the gas, a nine-game winning streak to close the regular season isn’t out of the question.
That would be a remarkable turnaround for a team that was hovering around .500 just over a month ago. But this Texans squad isn’t just surviving-they’re thriving. The defense has tightened up, the offense is clicking, and confidence is building with each passing week.
Jacksonville’s Margin for Error Shrinks
For the Jaguars, the pressure is mounting. A loss in Denver doesn’t just cost them the division lead-it opens the door for Houston to slam it shut over the final two weeks. Jacksonville would then be forced to watch and wait, hoping for a Texans stumble while trying to take care of their own business.
And let’s not forget: this is the same Jacksonville team that coughed up a 29-10 lead in Houston back in Week 10. That collapse still lingers, and if the Texans do leapfrog them in the standings, that game will loom even larger in hindsight.
One Game at a Time
For now, it’s all about Sunday. Houston can’t control what happens in Denver, but they can handle their own business against the Raiders. Win that, and the pressure shifts to Jacksonville.
This is what December football is all about-momentum, matchups, and meaningful games with playoff implications. The Texans are surging at the right time, and if they keep this up, the AFC South crown-and a home playoff game-could be within reach.