The AFC South just got a whole lot more interesting.
With their gritty 20-16 win over the Colts on Sunday, the Houston Texans didn’t just add another W to the column-they threw the AFC South playoff race into full-blown chaos. Now, three teams are neck-and-neck in a division that’s been anything but predictable this season.
Let’s break it down: the Jaguars and Colts are tied at 8-4, sitting atop the division. But don’t sleep on Houston.
At 7-5, the Texans are just one game back-and they hold recent wins over both of their division rivals. That’s not just a confidence boost; it’s a tiebreaker advantage that could loom large down the stretch.
According to current playoff projections, Houston still has the steepest climb of the trio. Their postseason chances sit at 61%, trailing Jacksonville at 85% and Indianapolis at 72%.
But the Texans aren’t just chasing the division title-they’re also firmly in the Wild Card mix. In fact, they’re currently a game ahead of the Kansas City Chiefs in that race.
And here’s the kicker: they play the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football in Week 14.
That’s not just a big game-it’s a potential playoff-shaping showdown. A win would give Houston the head-to-head tiebreaker over Kansas City and a two-game cushion with just three games left. In a season where every inch matters, that’s a mile of breathing room.
Meanwhile, the Colts and Jaguars meet in a heavyweight AFC South clash of their own. The stakes?
Everything. If Jacksonville comes out on top, their playoff odds skyrocket to 97%, while Indy’s would tumble to 56%.
Flip the result, and the Colts jump to 87%, with the Jags dropping to 72%. That’s the kind of swing that defines seasons.
Beyond the South, the entire AFC playoff picture is shifting. The Patriots have clawed their way back into the No. 1 seed-yes, those Patriots-even as the Broncos surge in the AFC West, threatening to end Kansas City’s nine-year run atop the division.
And then there’s the possibility-real and rising-that all three AFC South teams make the postseason. That hasn’t happened since 2007-08, when the Colts, Jaguars, and Titans all punched their tickets.
The Texans were the odd team out that year. This time, they’re right in the thick of it.
For that to happen, though, a few dominoes need to fall. The Bills, long considered a playoff lock, would need to stumble.
Houston already holds a key tiebreaker over Buffalo, which could be crucial if it comes down to the wire. But the Texans can’t count on the Bills slipping up too often-not with games against struggling teams like the Browns and Jets still on Buffalo’s schedule.
The Chargers are another team that could open the door. They’ve already lost to both the Colts and Jaguars this season, and they face the Texans in Week 17.
A loss there would give Houston the clean sweep over their AFC South counterparts-and could be the final blow to L.A.’s playoff hopes. That game might not just decide a Wild Card spot; it could shape the entire AFC bracket.
And for Jim Harbaugh’s squad, it would be a tough pill to swallow.
So what’s ahead?
Let’s start with the Colts. Their Week 14 matchup with Jacksonville is huge.
But it doesn’t get easier. They’ve got the Seahawks and 49ers coming up-two NFC West teams that can derail any playoff push.
After that, they close with a rematch against the Jags and a potentially season-defining trip to Houston.
Jacksonville’s path is a bit more forgiving. After the Colts, they get the Jets and Broncos.
The Jets haven’t beaten a team with a winning record all season, so that’s a game the Jaguars have to take care of. The Broncos?
That’s a tougher test, especially with Denver heating up. Then it’s back to division play with another shot at the Colts.
And then there’s Houston. Of the three, they’ve got the softest landing.
After the Chiefs, they host the Cardinals and Raiders-two teams already looking ahead to the draft. That’s a golden opportunity to stack wins.
Then it’s a road trip to face the Chargers before closing the season at home against the Colts. If they take care of business, that final game could be a win-and-in scenario-or even a battle for the division crown.
Bottom line? The AFC South is wide open.
Three teams. One game separating them.
And a handful of matchups that could flip the playoff picture on its head. Buckle up-December football just got real.