Week 3 brings a few pass-catcher matchups that jump off the page, especially for anyone trying to separate the playable slot options from the boundary receivers stuck in rough spots.
The cleanest place to start is Houston against Indianapolis, because the Colts have been a disaster against slot production through two games. Opponents are completing passes at a rate 26 percent above expectation when targeting the slot, and no defense has allowed a higher QB rating on those throws. A big part of that mess has come from Justin Walley, who has been beaten for 11 catches on 11 slot targets, 169 yards and a touchdown.
That lines up nicely for Dalton Schultz, who came out of Week 2 with 14 targets, and Jaylin Noel, who has lined up from the slot on 74 percent of his routes over Houston’s first two games. Noel’s usage also jumped last week with Nico Collins out, as he ran a route on 62 percent of the Texans’ dropbacks after sitting at a lower Week 1 level.
Against this Colts coverage, Schultz looks like a must-start in 12-team leagues, while Noel can be used as a PPR flex if you’re thin at receiver. That all changes if Collins returns.
Carolina’s Jalen Coker also gets a favorable setup against Cleveland. The Browns have not been shredded solely by slot work, but their high yards per attempt allowed has come from a handful of big plays early in the year.
Coker is still in position to benefit because he leads Panthers receivers with a 49 percent slot rate and, just as importantly, first-read targets. He also gets a likely draw against Myles Harden, who has allowed six catches for 70 yards and a score on seven slot targets this season.
Los Angeles’ offense is hard to love, but Ladd McConkey remains the obvious starting point, and his work from the slot on roughly half his routes gives him a decent lane against Buffalo. The bigger question in that game is Oronde Gadsden II.
With long-term injuries to both Charlie Kolar and David Njoku, Mike McDaniel has little choice but to feature his best tight end in Week 3 and beyond. Buffalo has not been much of a deterrent either, ranking seventh in slot targets allowed and 10th in completion rate over expected on slot throws.
Dee Alford and Jordan Hancock have both struggled in coverage, and Gadsden has already run 39 percent of his routes from the slot and 28 percent from the boundary in limited usage. With Njoku and Kolar both carrying slot rates around 20 percent, there’s a real chance Gadsden’s route rate climbs, especially if negative game script pushes more Chargers dropbacks.
He might even be the better play than Colston Loveland.
Stefon Diggs is in a much tougher spot. Seattle has been brutal on slot receivers, holding opponents to just 68 yards on slot targets through two weeks, and quarterbacks are averaging only 0.1 fantasy points per dropback when throwing to the slot against the Seahawks.
Diggs has run from the slot on a team-high 66 percent of his routes, and Washington’s likely drop in pass volume, combined with Marcus Mariota’s willingness to push the ball downfield, makes this a rough matchup. If you can avoid him, that’s the path I’d take.
On the boundary side, Philadelphia’s game against Chicago carries some uncertainty because of the Case Keenum Situation. A third-string quarterback starting against a strong defense makes normal game flow hard to project, and that can drag down the pass volume around him.
Still, Dontayvion Wicks should be in position to take advantage if the script cooperates. He plays almost entirely on the boundary, and Chicago has allowed the ninth highest completion rate over expected on boundary targets.
Through two weeks, only Houston has given up more fantasy points per dropback on boundary throws. DeVonta Smith should benefit too if the game stays reasonably normal.
Keon Coleman also has a path to usefulness. He was oddly productive last week after DJ Moore left the Bills game with a shoulder injury, finishing second on the team in air yards and leading Buffalo in first-read targets. Coleman has run 89 percent of his routes from the boundary, which puts him in line to attack a Chargers defense that has been vulnerable outside if Moore sits again.
Miami’s Malik Washington is harder to trust. He drew 34 percent of the team’s air yards and 27 percent of the targets, which is enough to keep him interesting, but Kansas City has shut down opposing boundary wideouts through two games.
The Chiefs’ defensive backs have been excellent on those throws, and Malik Willis has been one of the league’s least accurate passers so far this season. Injuries to Miami’s pass catchers could force more volume his way, but this is not the kind of matchup that makes him an easy Week 3 start.
In Other News...
Texans O-Line Decision Could Define Houstons Next Step With C.J. Stroud
After a rough Week 2 loss, DeMeco Ryans left open the possibility of reshuffling Houstons offensive line, with Blake Fisher in the mix at right tackle as the Texans try to settle things in front of C.J. Stroud. Its the kind of early-season adjustment that can quickly shape how an offense looks, especially for a team still searching for its first win and trying to avoid digging a deeper hole in the AFC South.
The timing matters with Indianapolis coming to town in Week 3, even with the Colts set to be without wide receiver Alec Pierce because of injury. Houstons focus remains much closer to home, where the priority is protecting Stroud and finding a combination up front that can give the offense a cleaner path forward. Whether Ryans sticks with the current look or makes a change will say plenty about how urgent the Texans feel the situation is. [Read more 🡒]
Texans Enter Colts Week With One Growing Problem On Offense
Nico Collins has become the latest concern for a Texans offense that has not had much room for error even with decent passing yardage from rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. Collins has missed multiple practices with a hamstring injury and is unlikely to play against the Indianapolis Colts, which leaves Houston heading into a divisional game without one of its most dependable targets.
The timing is less than ideal for an offense already trying to find a better balance. The passing game has moved the ball at times, but the unit has still had trouble turning production into points, and the running game has not been able to carry enough of the load. With Collins trending toward sitting out, Houston may have to lean harder on the run and spread the ball around to more receivers to keep the offense from stalling again. [Read more 🡒]
Texans Offense Faces Early Turning Point Against Colts
The Texans head into Week 3 with a little more pressure than anyone in Houston probably expected this early, and the matchup with the Colts feels like an immediate check on where the offense is headed. Both teams are 0-2, so this is less about October scoreboard watching and more about which side can stop the early-season slide before it really starts to define the year.
For Houston, the questions are all on the offensive side, where C.J. Stroud could be set up for another big passing day if the game script leans that way. There is also the possibility of Woody Marks getting a larger share of the backfield work, along with more chances for tight ends Foster Moreau and Marlin Klein to show up in the personnel mix, giving the Texans a few different ways to search for a spark against a division rival. [Read more 🡒]