The Texans’ short-yardage numbers are already flashing red, and that’s the kind of problem that tends to follow an offense around.
Through two games, Houston has piled up 20 plays in situations of 0-2 yards, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. That’s the third-most in the league, and the production has been rough enough to feed the same old questions about offensive coordinator Nick Caley’s group and whether it can deliver when the field tightens.
The split between the passing game and the run game is especially stark. In those short-yardage spots, the Texans are averaging 8.5 rushing yards per game, which ranks 17th, and only 1.4 rushing yards per play, tied for 25th. Their rushing EPA per rush sits at -0.25, good for 24th.
Overall, the numbers aren’t much prettier. Houston is putting up 33.5 total yards per game in these situations, which is the fourth-highest figure, but that hasn’t translated into points. The Texans are averaging 18.5 points per game, which ranks 21st, along with 3.4 yards per play, 13th, one touchdown, tied for 12th, and -0.33 EPA, 27th.
One obvious takeaway is that Houston keeps finding itself in these spots far too often. Being third in total short-yardage plays could mean the offense is moving the ball well on early downs.
It could also mean the Texans are failing to create enough chunk plays and keep putting themselves in must-convert situations. The latter looks a lot more likely.
If Houston wants fewer of these tight, stressful downs, it has to do a better job on first and second down. That’s the simplest route out.
When the Texans do get there, the data says C.J. Stroud should be the first answer.
Stroud has the second-highest total passing yards per game in short-yardage situations, and he’s averaging more than six yards per passing play in those moments. If Houston needs to keep the chains moving in condensed space, Stroud has clearly been the most reliable way to do it.
The run game, meanwhile, has been a mess. For a team that should be able to lean on the ground in short-yardage, Houston’s 1.4 rushing yards per play is a brutal number. It suggests defenses are having little trouble shutting down the Texans’ “new-look” offensive line and rushing attack, which cuts against everything general manager Nick Caserio and company sold during the offseason.
For now, the story is pretty simple: the Texans are getting too many short-yardage chances, they’re not running it well enough to feel safe, and the passing game - especially Stroud - is carrying the better part of the load.
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