Texans Grind Out Another Win, Move One Step Closer to the Playoffs
It wasn’t pretty, and it certainly wasn’t dominant, but the Houston Texans got the job done. In a gritty, uneven performance against the Las Vegas Raiders, Houston managed to escape with a win that keeps their postseason hopes very much alive. It was the kind of game that won’t make many highlight reels, but in December football, style points don’t count-only wins do.
For head coach DeMeco Ryans, this was one of the more underwhelming outings of his tenure. The offense struggled to find rhythm, and for the first time in weeks, the defensive front didn’t look like its usual disruptive self. Still, the Texans did just enough to hold off the Raiders and now find themselves on the doorstep of the playoffs.
Playoff Picture: Texans in the Driver’s Seat
With two games left in the regular season, Houston’s playoff chances have never looked better. They currently hold a 99% probability of making the postseason and sit in the AFC’s final Wild Card spot heading into Week 17.
Here’s how the AFC playoff standings look:
- 1st Seed (Bye): Denver Broncos (12-3) - Clinched
- 2nd Seed: New England Patriots (12-3) - Clinched
- 3rd Seed: Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4) - Clinched
- 4th Seed: Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6) - 94% playoff probability
- 5th Seed (Wild Card): LA Chargers (11-4) - Clinched
- 6th Seed (Wild Card): Buffalo Bills (11-4) - Clinched
- 7th Seed (Wild Card): Houston Texans (10-5) - 99% playoff probability
Just outside the cut:
- Indianapolis Colts (8-7): 1% chance
- Baltimore Ravens (7-8): 6% chance
There’s only one Wild Card spot left to be claimed, and the Texans currently hold it. They can lock it up in Week 17 with a win or tie against the Chargers. There are also more complex clinching scenarios that include results from other games-like wins from Baltimore, Buffalo, Kansas City, and San Francisco, plus losses from Atlanta and Miami-but the simplest path is the most satisfying: win and you’re in.
AFC South Still in Play-But Barely
The division crown is still mathematically possible, but Houston needs help. The Jaguars have been red-hot, scoring 25+ points in eight straight games, including four outings with 34 or more. Jacksonville has two games left-against the Colts and the Titans-and they’d need to drop one for Houston to have a shot at the AFC South title.
Here’s how the division stacks up:
- Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4): Clinched playoffs, 80% chance to win division
- Houston Texans (10-5): 99% chance to make playoffs, 20% shot at division
- Indianapolis Colts (8-7): 1% playoff chance
- Tennessee Titans (3-12): Eliminated
If the Texans win just one of their final two games, they’ll officially eliminate the Colts from playoff contention-a stunning turn considering Indy once sat at 8-2 with a 98% chance to make the postseason.
Week 17: Texans at Chargers - High Stakes in LA
This weekend’s matchup between the Texans and Chargers is massive. A win or tie for Houston would not only clinch a playoff berth, but also bump them up from the 7th seed to the 6th. That shift could be crucial, potentially setting up a more favorable first-round matchup-likely against the Jaguars instead of a tougher opponent.
The Chargers already punched their playoff ticket last week thanks to the Colts’ loss to the 49ers, so they may not be playing with the same urgency. That could give Houston an edge-but they’ll still need to bring their A-game.
Other Key Matchups That Could Impact Houston’s Path
Jaguars at Colts (Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET)
This one’s big for both the division and the Wild Card race. If the Jaguars win, they essentially lock up the AFC South, but that also helps Houston by pushing them closer to a playoff berth.
If the Colts pull off the upset and Houston beats the Chargers, the Texans could leap to the No. 3 seed. Either way, a Houston win is the key to unlocking any of these scenarios.
Eagles at Bills (Sunday, 1:25 p.m. ET)
This game could be pivotal for Houston’s seeding. If the Texans beat the Chargers and the Eagles knock off the Bills, Houston could jump from the 7th seed all the way to the 5th.
That would set up a first-round matchup against the 4th-seeded Steelers-a far more favorable draw than facing Jacksonville or Buffalo on the road. But again, none of this matters unless Houston takes care of business in Los Angeles.
Bottom Line:
The Texans are right where they need to be.
It hasn’t always been pretty, and the road’s been anything but smooth, but Houston controls its own destiny. With a playoff berth within arm’s reach and the potential to climb the seeding ladder, Week 17 is shaping up to be one of the most important games of the season.
All eyes now shift to Los Angeles.