Week 5 brings a thinner Survivor Pool board, and that usually means sharper choices. With Carolina and Kansas City both on bye, there are only 15 games to sift through, but there are still a couple of spots that stand out for the SI Betting duo of Iain MacMillan and Peter Dewey.
The first name on Dewey’s list is Cincinnati, and the case starts with the opponent. Miami has been one of the league’s weakest teams through four weeks, scoring 13 or fewer points in every game while sitting 29th in EPA/Play on offense and 28th in EPA/Play on defense. That’s a rough profile to carry into a matchup with a Bengals team that has been steady enough on both sides of the ball, ranking 10th in EPA/Play on offense and 16th in success rate on offense, while checking in 14th in EPA/Play on defense and 19th in success rate defensively.
Even with Ja’Marr Chase (concussion) potentially out, Dewey still sees enough from Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati offense to feel good about the spot. Burrow moved the ball against the Jacksonville Jaguars without Chase, and the Bengals have already shown enough inconsistency early to make this a must-handle game if they want to keep control of the AFC North.
Cincinnati opened 2-0, then dropped games to Pittsburgh and Jacksonville, and now enters as a seven-point road favorite. Dewey expects a bounce-back performance.
MacMillan went a different direction and landed on Houston for its first win of the season against Tennessee. He pointed to the Texans’ underlying numbers, which have looked better than the record, and said the offense feels more trustworthy with Nico Collins healthy. The defense also gives Houston a strong base, as it remains top 10 in opponent success rate.
That makes the Titans a target, especially with Cam Ward still struggling. MacMillan sees this as the kind of week Houston can finally turn the corner and keep Survivor players moving into Week 6.
Week 4 went well for the group, with Minnesota, Baltimore, Kansas City and Seattle all getting wins on Sunday. Baltimore and Minnesota didn’t cover, and a Lamar Jackson injury made the Ravens result a little more stressful than expected, but the picks still got through. Now the focus shifts to a Week 5 slate that includes Dallas as a 10-point home favorite against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday night, plus a handful of other options that were under consideration, including Detroit.
Dewey also noted that Dallas, Detroit and Cincinnati were all in the mix because of how manageable their remaining schedules could be after finishing third or fourth in their divisions in 2025. Even so, he preferred other home spots later in the year for Dallas and Detroit, which helped push Cincinnati to the top of his board.
For both analysts, the message is pretty clear: Week 5 is about trusting the better team in the right matchup, and the Bengals and Texans are the picks they like most.
In Other News...
George Pickens Just Added To The Texans Secondary's Awkward Problem
George Pickens had plenty of reason to respect what the Texans brought up front after the Cowboys game, and he made sure to point it out afterward. Asked about Houstons defense, the Dallas receiver credited the Texans pass rush, naming Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter as the players who stood out most to him in the trenches.
What he did not do was extend the same praise to Houstons secondary, even when the conversation gave him the chance. For a Texans defense trying to establish itself as a complete unit, that kind of split reaction is the sort of postgame detail that lingers, because it suggests the front did its job while the back end still has something to prove. [Read more 🡒]
Texans Need DeMeco Ryans To Spark What This Defense Lacks
The Texans have stumbled to an 0-4 start, and the defense has become a major reason the season has gone sideways early. As Houston prepares for its Week 5 meeting with the Titans, DeMeco Ryans has moved to take a more direct role in fixing the unit, putting himself at the center of the effort to steady a group that has not yet looked like a cohesive whole.
Will Anderson Jr. has backed Ryans' approach, saying the head coach brings the kind of accountability the defense needs right now. For a team trying to stop an early slide, that combination of firmness and trust could matter as much as anything on the call sheet, especially with the Texans searching for a response that shows up in a divisional game. [Read more 🡒]
Texans Bring Back Former Titans Receiver Before A Notable Week 5 Test
The Texans added a familiar face to their roster this week, signing wide receiver Bryce Oliver to the 53-man group ahead of their Week 5 meeting with the Titans. Oliver had already spent time on Houstons practice squad, and his path back comes after two seasons in Tennessee before his release, giving the Texans an extra receiver with some built-in familiarity as they get ready for a divisional matchup.
It is a move that gives Houston a little more flexibility in a receiver room that has already been changing, especially with special teams value carrying plenty of weight for the bottom of the roster. The timing also makes the decision a little more interesting, with the Texans lining up for a game against the team Oliver just left behind and more personnel movement still possible as the week unfolds. [Read more 🡒]