When it comes to franchise-altering decisions, the Houston Texans are staring down one of the biggest in their history - and no, this isn’t déjà vu from the last time they paid a quarterback. This time, it’s not as clear-cut.
Back then, the whole organization - and the city - was united in believing they had their guy. Now?
Not quite.
C.J. Stroud has shown plenty of promise, but the question facing the Texans isn’t just if they should pay him - it’s how much. And that’s where things get complicated.
The Quarterback Landscape: Where Does Stroud Fit?
Let’s start by zooming out. You can divide NFL quarterbacks into three broad tiers:
- The Elite - These are the top 10 quarterbacks in both salary and performance.
Think MVP candidates, perennial Pro Bowlers, and guys you build your entire franchise around. 2.
The Unsettled - Rookies still on their first deals or teams in quarterback limbo, either waiting on development or punting until the next draft/free agency cycle. 3.
The Middle Class - This is where things get interesting - and where Stroud currently lives.
This middle tier is made up of quarterbacks who are established starters but haven’t cracked the elite club - at least not yet. Some signed their deals before the recent explosion in quarterback salaries. Others simply weren’t viewed as top-tier talents at the time of their extensions.
Stroud, based on performance and experience, slots in with this group. To get a clearer picture, let’s look at a group of quarterbacks with similar resumes - using a few key metrics: completion percentage, yards per game, yards per attempt, touchdown percentage, and interception percentage.
Here’s how Stroud stacks up against nine other quarterbacks in that middle tier:
| Quarterback | Games | PCT | YPG | YPA | TD% | INT% |
|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 48 | 64.4 | 259.0 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 1.7 | | Baker Mayfield | 51 | 66.3 | 239.9 | 7.3 | 5.7 | 2.2 |
| Sam Darnold | 35 | 66.7 | 247.5 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | | Patrick Mahomes | 46 | 66.0 | 254.3 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 2.1 |
| Kirk Cousins | 30 | 66.3 | 252.0 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.5 | | **C.J.
Stroud** | 46 | 63.8 | 236.4 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | | Geno Smith | 47 | 67.7 | 233.4 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 2.7 |
| Kyler Murray | 30 | 67.8 | 220.4 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 | | Aaron Rodgers | 34 | 64.2 | 212.3 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 1.7 |
| Daniel Jones | 29 | 66.1 | 209.7 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 2.4 |
When you remove Stroud and average the rest, here’s what you get:
- Mean: 38.9 games, 66.2% completion, 236.5 YPG, 7.2 YPA, 4.6 TD%, 2.2 INT%
- Median: 35 games, 66.3% completion, 239.9 YPG, 7.3 YPA, 4.5 TD%, 2.1 INT%
Stroud’s numbers? Pretty much right there in the middle.
He’s slightly below average in completion percentage and TD rate, but he holds his own in yards per attempt and interception percentage. Statistically, he’s neck-and-neck with Kirk Cousins - a good sign if you're aiming for consistency and efficiency.
What That Means for the Money
Now let’s talk dollars - because that’s what this is really about.
The average annual value (AAV) of contracts for this middle-tier group paints a telling picture:
- Mean AAV: $34.5 million
- Median AAV: $37.5 million
- 5th-highest AAV in the group: $37.5 million
- Kirk Cousins AAV: $45 million
If you’re looking for a baseline, that $35-$45 million range is where Stroud’s next contract likely lands. He’s not in the elite class just yet, but he’s also not a stopgap or a project. He’s proven enough to warrant serious investment - just not blank-check territory.
Strategic Timing: Wait or Pay Now?
If you’re Stroud’s camp, led by agent David Mulugheta, the play might be patience. Wait another year, let the market rise, and bet on Stroud taking another leap forward. If he does, his leverage skyrockets.
But if you’re the Texans? You’ve got a decision to make.
Waiting could cost you more down the line - especially if Stroud levels up and joins that top-tier conversation. But jumping the gun and offering $50 million-plus per year right now?
That’s a gamble that doesn’t align with the numbers.
A reasonable compromise? Somewhere around $40 million annually.
That puts Stroud in the same ballpark as Mahomes and Cousins - two very different quarterbacks, but both with resumes that command respect. It also gives the Texans a bit of breathing room to see how the story unfolds.
Final Thoughts
This isn’t just a numbers game - it’s a franchise-defining moment. Stroud has shown enough to earn a seat at the table, but not enough to blow past it. The Texans have to weigh production, potential, and precedent - all while navigating a volatile quarterback market.
The range is clear: $35 to $45 million annually. Anything more than that, and you’re paying for what you hope Stroud becomes, not what he’s shown so far.
The Texans have been here before. This time, the decision is harder - and the stakes may be even higher.