Week One is here, and with it comes the usual Texans question: how high can this thing really go in 2026?
The bar in Houston has been raised by three straight AFC Divisional Round finishes, and that kind of consistency has changed the conversation. The defense is expected to carry its weight again, but the offensive line remains the biggest source of doubt, and several voices around Battle Red Blog see that as the factor that could keep the Texans from breaking through.
The records in the room mostly clustered around the same neighborhood, but the ceiling opinions varied. VBallRetired went with 11-6 and an AFC South title, while also calling for another divisional-round loss. The picture there sounds familiar: strong defense, uneven offense, a better run game, and a passing attack that slips without Higgins.
Mike Bullock also landed on 11-6, but he’s thinking bigger - at least through the AFC title game. He sees another trip to the conference championship, another painful finish, and then the kind of cruel bounce that sends some other team on to get smashed by the LA Rams in the Super Bowl. After that, it’s back to the familiar refrain of “waiting for next season since 2002.”
L4Blitzer was a little more cautious, settling on 10-7 with a +3/-2 on the record. The schedule is no joke - he pointed out it’s the 7th toughest - and he wants to see the offense actually improve from last year.
If the line comes together and the defense stays healthy, he thinks Houston can push for the 2 or 1 seed. If not, he said a losing record can’t be ruled out.
Even then, he still isn’t ready to project anything beyond the divisional round until the Texans actually get there.
Patrick H. came in with the boldest regular-season number: 12-5, a first-round bye, and a trip to the conference championship game. But he made it clear that prediction comes with a long list of conditions.
He laid it out as a set of must-haves: the “bad/inexperienced playcalling at offensive coordinator” has to be fixed, the offensive line has to be addressed, that line has to play at least average football, C.J. Stroud’s struggles have to trace back to those earlier problems, and the team needs “A crap ton of good injury luck.”
If all that happens, he said, nothing stops this team.
Kenneth L. also picked 12-5, and he pointed to the overall talent level as the reason for the optimism. He said Nick Caserio and Demeco Ryans have “assembled arguably the best team the Texans have ever had” in three years, and believes the roster has enough weapons, defense, and top-end talent to win a Super Bowl. Still, he stressed that talent alone won’t be enough; health, luck, good calls, and ongoing roster management all matter.
He also expects Houston to make a move if things start hot. His prediction is that by Week 7, if the Texans are 6-1 or 5-2, they will trade their first round pick for an offensive lineman. He specifically called a top-end guard on a struggling team the kind of addition that could tilt things in Houston’s favor.
The offensive line was the one place where nobody sounded comfortable. Kenneth L. said neither Braden Smith (IR) nor Wyatt Teller will start on the re-made, “x4 seasons in a row” offensive line, and he flagged concern about LT Aireontae Ersery’s development and regression by Ed Ingram. That same uncertainty shows up in everyone’s outlook, even the more optimistic ones.
On the schedule, Kenneth L. listed losses to Buffalo, Dallas, Jacksonville, Baltimore, and Philadelphia, while still expecting the defense to be the unit that swarms opponents. He believes that side of the ball will make Houston a team nobody wants to see in the playoffs, no matter where it’s seeded.
Even with all that confidence, the ending keeps circling back to the same place. Kenneth L. still predicts another divisional-round exit, whether that comes against up-and-coming teams like New England or Denver, or against the usual heavyweights in Buffalo, Kansas City, or Baltimore.
In Other News...
Texans Make A Late QB Move Right Before Week 1
The Texans added a little more depth at quarterback just before the start of the regular season, signing former Dolphins passer Mark Gronkowski to the practice squad. It gives Houston another arm in the building alongside starter C.J. Stroud and backup Davis Mills, a move that adds insurance as the team gets ready for Week 1.
Gronkowski arrives after a notable college career and a brief stay with Miami, where he was recently released before Houston stepped in. For a team trying to stay organized at the game's most important position, the addition is a low-risk move that could matter more if the Texans need extra depth later on. [Read more 🡒]
Texans Face A Costly Kamari Lassiter Decision After New CB Deal
The cornerback market has a new standard, and it could have real implications for Houston as it looks ahead to Kamari Lassiters next deal. The Patriots four-year, $130 million agreement with Christian Gonzalez gave the position another major price tag, one that only raises the stakes for teams trying to keep young defensive backs in place once their rookie deals run down.
For the Texans, Lassiter is now part of a wider financial picture that will shape the roster after the 2026 season. If Houston decides he is a long-term keeper, it may take a significant commitment to get it done, and the latest contract at the position only makes that conversation more expensive. [Read more 🡒]
Texans Practice Squad Shuffle Suddenly Includes A Quarterback Twist
The Texans kept their practice squad moving this week, adding center Gavin Gerhardt and quarterback Mark Gronowski while opening spots by releasing defensive tackle Dom Bailey and center Kaena De Cambra. It was a small roster adjustment on the surface, but the quarterback addition gives the group a little more intrigue than the usual back-end shuffle.
Gronowski arrives with a college track record that included stops at South Dakota State and Iowa, and he was recently let go from the Dolphins practice squad before landing in Houston. For a Texans team always watching the depth chart closely, the move adds another arm to the mix and raises the question of how the staff plans to use him once the dust settles. [Read more 🡒]