The Houston Texans are sitting at 7-5, and while that record might look respectable on paper, the reality is this team is walking a tightrope with no safety net. They’re currently on the outside looking in when it comes to the AFC playoff picture, and with five games left, the margin for error is razor-thin.
After a gritty win over the then-division-leading Colts, Houston finds itself with a 52% shot at making the postseason, per ESPN’s projections. That’s a coin flip, essentially.
And while the win was meaningful, it didn’t move the playoff needle much-largely because every other wild card hopeful also came out of last weekend with a W. The Chargers, Jaguars, and Bills all improved to 8-4, keeping the Texans stuck in the middle of a very crowded AFC race.
Jacksonville, in particular, continues to be a thorn in Houston’s side. The Jaguars have refused to fade, making any hope of stealing the AFC South that much more difficult. The division title is still technically in play, but it’s going to take more than just scoreboard watching-it’s going to take near-perfection.
Let’s break down why the Texans can really only afford to lose one more game the rest of the way.
It starts with the schedule: Kansas City, the Chargers, the Colts again, and two teams that have been more or less punching bags this season in Arizona and Las Vegas. On paper, that’s three playoff-caliber opponents and two “should-win” games. But this is the NFL, and nothing is guaranteed-especially in December.
If Houston drops two of those three tougher matchups, they’ll not only fall behind in the standings but also potentially lose critical head-to-head tiebreakers. And if they split the season series with Indianapolis, the Colts could end up holding the tiebreaker for the AFC South crown. That’s a scenario the Texans want to avoid at all costs.
History doesn’t offer much comfort either. Since the NFL expanded the playoffs in 2020, the average wild card team has needed just over 10 wins to get in-10.3, to be exact.
Eleven wins usually punches your ticket. Ten might get you in, but only if the right teams stumble.
That means Houston likely needs to finish 4-1 down the stretch. If they go 3-2, they’ll need some help, and that’s not a position you want to be in with teams like the Ravens and Chiefs still looming large in the AFC hierarchy.
The silver lining? That win over the Colts didn’t just keep Houston alive-it cracked open the door to something bigger: a shot at the division title.
For the first time all year, that’s a real possibility. And while Houston only has one more divisional game left, winning it would boost both their division and conference records.
Right now, they’re 6-2 in the AFC, and that could be a key tiebreaker if things get tight.
Next up is a trip to Kansas City, and this one’s got serious playoff implications for both teams. The Chiefs, coming off a narrow loss to the Cowboys where their defense got carved up by Dak Prescott, are suddenly looking vulnerable. Houston will need to capitalize on that-because the road ahead doesn’t get any easier.
In a conference this competitive, every possession, every quarter, every snap matters. The Texans have shown they can hang with good teams. Now they’ve got to prove they can beat them when it counts most.