Week 6 brings a big AFC South test in London, where the Jacksonville Jaguars sit at 4-1 and the Houston Texans arrive at 1-4 with plenty to prove.
Jacksonville already escaped with a win in London on Oct. 11, outlasting the Philadelphia Eagles on a last-second field goal after some strong special teams work on the final kickoff helped set up the winning chance. Oddsmakers still have Trevor Lawrence’s team favored here, and for good reason: the Jaguars have stacked up wins early, sit in the AFC conversation, and are +1300 to win the Super Bowl. They’re also 8-7 in London in franchise history.
Houston, meanwhile, has spent the first month fighting back from a rough 0-4 start that fueled plenty of criticism of former No. 2 overall pick C.J. Stroud.
But the Texans got a much-needed Week 5 win over the Tennessee Titans, and now the path starts to open up. A division win over Jacksonville would matter a lot, especially since it would put Houston at 2-1 against AFC South opponents.
That’s not the only reason the Texans still have life. Their schedule after this game features the New York Giants, Los Angeles Chargers, Cleveland Browns and Indianapolis Colts - a stretch that could keep them moving if they can start stacking wins. Houston also added former top-five pick Marvin Harrison Jr. in a trade on Sunday, giving Stroud another piece to work with alongside Nico Collins.
Stroud has quietly put together a strong season despite the record. Through five games, he has completed 64.3 percent of his passes for 1,402 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions. In Week 5, he threw for 261 yards and a score while adding two carries for 11 yards and his first rushing touchdown of the season.
The advanced numbers back up the production. Stroud ranks 10th in total EPA and 11th in success rate among quarterbacks with at least 50 offensive plays this season, and Houston sits 11th in the league in EPA/Play on offense even with Collins missing multiple games. The Texans will need that version of Stroud again against a Jacksonville defense that ranks fourth in the league in EPA/Play.
Houston’s defense has also shown signs of waking up. The Texans were the No. 1 team in EPA/Play on defense last season, and they held Tennessee to three points in Week 5.
They still rank ninth in the NFL in yards per play allowed, and Jacksonville is a step up in class. Even so, the Jaguars are not spotless on that side of the ball.
They’re a top-10 team in EPA/Play on both offense and defense, but their defense ranks 22nd in yards per play allowed, which leaves some room for Houston to attack.
These teams have also played Houston’s way lately. The Texans have won three of the last four meetings heading into this matchup, and Jacksonville didn’t exactly cruise past Philadelphia despite the final score in Week 5. The numbers like Liam Coen’s team, but the Jaguars needed late-game help to survive.
So while Jacksonville has the better record and the stronger overall profile, this one sets up as a tougher spot than the market might suggest. I’d grab the points with Houston in what looks like an upset opportunity.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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