Sunday’s meeting between the Texans and Colts comes with a built-in mystery: both teams are 0-2, and both have taken their lumps against playoff-bound opponents. That makes the first two weeks useful, but only to a point. The numbers matter, sure, but early in the season they can also lie a little.
Houston, especially, has been a moving target. In Week 1, the defense looked exposed.
In Week 2, the offense did. That kind of split personality makes it hard to pin down what the Texans really are right now.
Indianapolis has its own version of that problem on both sides of the ball, which is why this game feels like a sorting-out exercise as much as a matchup. One team is going to leave with some belief.
The other is going to slide deeper into desperation mode.
The statistical picture is revealing, even if it comes with caution labels. The Texans rank 25th in rushing yards and 3rd in passing yards, while sitting 6th in rushing yards allowed and 26th in passing yards allowed.
The Colts are 16th in rushing yards, 25th in passing yards, 31st in rushing yards allowed, and 32nd in passing yards allowed. That’s not a flattering spread for either side, but it does point to the same basic question for both clubs: are these numbers telling the truth, or are they just the result of who they’ve played?
Houston’s identity crisis is the loudest one in the room. The Texans say they want to be a hard-nosed, physical running team, but the numbers say they’ve been a passing team. That’s a real issue if the trend keeps going, though it also has to be viewed in context because they’ve spent a lot of time playing from behind through the first two games.
Indianapolis has its own context, too. The Chiefs and Ravens are two of the AFC’s better offenses, so the Colts’ ugly defensive numbers might be a sign of real trouble, or they might just reflect the level of competition. Sunday should help sort that out.
For the Colts offense, the engine is clear enough. Jonathan “Zachary” Taylor is one of the best five backs in football year in a year out.
He doesn’t get the same attention as some of the other stars because he doesn’t show up in prime time nearly as much, and Daniel Jones is not exactly the kind of quarterback who changes the way defenses think about him. Still, Jones can help with his legs, and when he’s paired with Taylor, the Colts can put together one of the NFL’s most dynamic rushing attacks.
That attack may have to do a lot of heavy lifting. Jones is dealing with the same issue this week that Stroud faced last week: no Alex Pierce.
That means fewer targets and less margin for error. Ty Warren is still a weapon and should matter in the play-action game and on run-pass options, but the Colts’ best path is pretty straightforward.
Stay ahead of the chains, and they can keep the offense on schedule. Fall behind the sticks, and it could get long for Jones.
Houston’s defense will have a say in that, and the first job is obvious: slow Taylor down. The Texans are not facing a back on the level of Derrick Henry or Kenneth Walker here, and David Montgomery has mostly been a complementary back over the course of his career, even if he has been one of the better ones.
He is not the kind of runner who can carry a team by himself, especially if the blocking up front isn’t helping. If the Texans can shut down Montgomery and Woody Marks the way the Bengals did, the Colts offense could start looking ordinary in a hurry.
Houston has also had issues against the pass, but Stroud is not Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes, so there is at least some room for optimism there.
On the other side, the Texans offense is facing the same old question: what do they want to be, and what can they actually be? The smartest move is always to lean into what works, and right now Houston has been throwing the ball effectively.
Nico Collins’ status is still unknown at press time, but if he plays, he’s the natural place to start. He has hurt the Colts before.
If he can’t go, Nick Caley will have to get creative.
That creativity will matter because what’s left on the roster is not exactly a traditional collection of playmakers. The Texans would love to pair their passing game with a hard-nosed rushing attack that takes pressure off Stroud, but at this point that may be more hope than expectation. And there’s one more blunt truth in all of this: if you can’t run on the Colts, you probably can’t run on anyone.
The Colts’ defense is carrying its own warning label. Like Houston’s pass defense, it looks rough on paper, but there’s a difference between being exposed by Josh Allen and Joe Burrow and being exposed by everybody.
Over a full season, the real picture comes from the full body of work. If Daniel Jones tears them up, then the alarm bells get louder.
For Houston, the assignment is simple enough: keep Taylor from taking over and keep Indianapolis behind the sticks. If they do that, they win the game.
Period.
In Other News...
Texans O-Line Decision Could Define Houstons Next Step With C.J. Stroud
After a rough Week 2 loss, DeMeco Ryans left open the possibility of reshuffling Houstons offensive line, with Blake Fisher in the mix at right tackle as the Texans try to settle things in front of C.J. Stroud. Its the kind of early-season adjustment that can quickly shape how an offense looks, especially for a team still searching for its first win and trying to avoid digging a deeper hole in the AFC South.
The timing matters with Indianapolis coming to town in Week 3, even with the Colts set to be without wide receiver Alec Pierce because of injury. Houstons focus remains much closer to home, where the priority is protecting Stroud and finding a combination up front that can give the offense a cleaner path forward. Whether Ryans sticks with the current look or makes a change will say plenty about how urgent the Texans feel the situation is. [Read more 🡒]
Texans Enter Colts Week With One Growing Problem On Offense
Nico Collins has become the latest concern for a Texans offense that has not had much room for error even with decent passing yardage from rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. Collins has missed multiple practices with a hamstring injury and is unlikely to play against the Indianapolis Colts, which leaves Houston heading into a divisional game without one of its most dependable targets.
The timing is less than ideal for an offense already trying to find a better balance. The passing game has moved the ball at times, but the unit has still had trouble turning production into points, and the running game has not been able to carry enough of the load. With Collins trending toward sitting out, Houston may have to lean harder on the run and spread the ball around to more receivers to keep the offense from stalling again. [Read more 🡒]
Texans Offense Faces Early Turning Point Against Colts
The Texans head into Week 3 with a little more pressure than anyone in Houston probably expected this early, and the matchup with the Colts feels like an immediate check on where the offense is headed. Both teams are 0-2, so this is less about October scoreboard watching and more about which side can stop the early-season slide before it really starts to define the year.
For Houston, the questions are all on the offensive side, where C.J. Stroud could be set up for another big passing day if the game script leans that way. There is also the possibility of Woody Marks getting a larger share of the backfield work, along with more chances for tight ends Foster Moreau and Marlin Klein to show up in the personnel mix, giving the Texans a few different ways to search for a spark against a division rival. [Read more 🡒]