The Houston Texans are back in familiar territory - the Divisional Round - for the seventh time in franchise history. And while the past hasn’t always been kind at this stage, this year feels different.
Up next? A showdown with the New England Patriots, a team that’s had Houston’s number in the postseason.
But this isn’t the same Patriots squad from the dynasty years - and it’s not the same Texans team either. There’s a fresh energy on both sides, and Sunday’s clash has all the makings of a heavyweight battle.
Drake Maye’s MVP Case: More Than Just Stats
Let’s start with the quarterback who’s turned heads across the league: Drake Maye. The second-year signal-caller has elevated the Patriots’ offense in ways few expected this early in his career. Yes, Matthew Stafford’s 46 touchdown passes are eye-popping, but Maye’s case for MVP is built on more than raw numbers.
He’s been surgical under pressure, ranking among the league’s best when blitzed or forced off-platform. His deep ball?
One of the most efficient in the league over the past decade. And while he’s had the benefit of throwing to veterans like Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte, and Hunter Henry, it’s Maye’s poise, mobility, and ball placement that have unlocked their production.
What really separates Maye is his ability to impact the game as a runner. He’s not just escaping pressure - he’s creating first downs with his legs and keeping drives alive.
He’s also undefeated (6-0) against opponents that Stafford has gone 4-2 against, and his stat line compares favorably even without the gaudy touchdown total. ESPN’s Bill Barnwell even put to bed the strength-of-schedule argument, showing both quarterbacks have faced similar defensive challenges.
The MVP race may be leaning Stafford’s way, but Maye’s case is as real as it gets.
Patriots Defense: Peaking at the Right Time
The Patriots’ defense dominated the Chargers in the Wild Card round, holding them to just three points. And while some of that falls on the Chargers’ offensive struggles, New England’s defense deserves plenty of credit. Interim defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr dialed up a creative mix of pressures and disguises that had Justin Herbert guessing all afternoon.
The pass defense has been steadily improving, but it was the run defense that really turned heads. After struggling early in the season, the Patriots’ front looked stout and disciplined.
The returns of Milton Williams and Robert Spillane were huge. Williams made impact plays in the regular-season finale and again in the Wild Card game, while Spillane brought a physical edge in the middle.
With nose tackle Khyiris Tonga expected back this week, New England’s defensive front could be as healthy and effective as it’s been all season - bad timing for a Texans offense that needs balance to support C.J. Stroud.
Backfield Duo: Thunder and Lightning in Foxborough
Few teams can match the Patriots’ one-two punch in the backfield. Rookie TreVeyon Henderson and veteran Rhamondre Stevenson complement each other perfectly, and both bring different elements to the offense.
Henderson struggled early adjusting to NFL speed, but once he found his footing, he became one of the league’s most dangerous backs. He’s got the speed to take it the distance, the balance to shed tackles, and the kind of burst that turns nothing into 60-yard gains. Even when the stat sheet doesn’t pop, his presence forces defenses to stay honest.
Stevenson, on the other hand, has been on a tear since the Patriots’ bye week. He’s slippery in space, powerful through contact, and savvy in the passing game.
He’s also one of the best blocking backs in the league, which makes him invaluable on third downs. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels trusts Stevenson in passing situations, but he’s not afraid to put both backs on the field together - either to help in protection or to create mismatches against slower linebackers.
Injury Report: Patriots Getting Healthy at the Right Time
Injuries often define playoff runs, and the Patriots are trending in the right direction. Thursday’s practice saw full attendance - a rare sight this late in the season.
Cornerback Christian Gonzalez cleared concussion protocol and practiced fully, which is a big boost for the secondary. Tight end Hunter Henry and defensive lineman Khyiris Tonga were also upgraded to full participants.
Right tackle Morgan Moses and jumbo tight end Thayer Munford remained limited, but both are trending toward playing. Moses, in particular, has been a warrior all season, gutting through injuries to anchor the right side of the line.
Prediction Time: Patriots Slight Favorites, But Are They Built for More?
The oddsmakers have New England as a three-point favorite, and that feels about right - maybe even a little low. This Patriots team isn’t just surviving; it’s starting to look like the playoff-caliber squads of old.
Mike Vrabel’s Texans will come in swinging, but Maye has shown he can handle the moment. If the Patriots clean up their red zone execution - a weak spot last week - they could pull away.
Defensively, New England’s front has a chance to control the game, especially if Trent Brown doesn’t suit up for Houston. Without Nico Collins, C.J.
Stroud loses his top vertical threat, which could limit the Texans’ ability to stretch the field. Dalton Schultz might find some room against man coverage, but if Houston becomes one-dimensional, Kuhr’s defense will be ready to pounce.
If you’re looking for a prop bet? Hunter Henry to score a touchdown seems like a strong play - he’s found the end zone in three of his last four games. And don’t be surprised if Milton Williams gets home on a late sack.
This one has all the makings of a physical, chess-match kind of playoff game. The Patriots are back in the mix, and they’re starting to look like a team nobody wants to face.
The Texans, meanwhile, are chasing history - and trying to rewrite their own postseason story. One thing’s for sure: Sunday’s going to be a battle.