Texans Eye Offensive Breakout vs. Struggling Cardinals Defense
As the Houston Texans prepare to host the 3-10 Arizona Cardinals this Sunday, the matchup presents more than just another checkmark on the schedule - it's a golden opportunity for Houston’s offense to find its rhythm at a critical juncture in the AFC playoff race.
Let’s be honest: the Cardinals’ defense has been a revolving door lately. Over their last five games, they’ve surrendered an average of 35.4 points per outing - and in three of those, they gave up 40 or more.
That’s not just a rough patch; that’s a trend. On the season, Arizona has allowed opponents to score 20+ points in 10 of their 13 games, and the numbers behind that tell the story.
Under head coach Jonathan Gannon and defensive coordinator Nick Rallis, Arizona’s defense ranks in the bottom third of the league across the board - 20th against the pass (224.3 yards/game), 19th against the run (123.1 yards/game), 24th in total yards allowed (347.4/game), and 26th in points allowed (26.8/game). Injuries have played a role, sure, but the defensive struggles have been a major anchor on what’s become a lost season for the Cardinals.
Can Houston Capitalize?
That brings us to the Texans - a team that’s shown flashes of offensive brilliance but hasn’t quite found consistent footing. The formula for success has been pretty clear: when they score more than 20 points, they win.
Houston is a perfect 7-0 in games where they’ve hit that mark, averaging 27.8 points in those contests. But when they fall short of 20, it’s a different story - they’re 1-5, averaging just 14.6 points in those games.
It’s a Jekyll and Hyde situation, and it’s made Houston one of the more unpredictable teams in the playoff hunt. But here’s the kicker: they’re doing this while boasting the NFL’s top-ranked defense. That’s what makes this offensive inconsistency so frustrating - the defense is championship-caliber, but the offense hasn’t always held up its end of the bargain.
Strength of Opponent Matters
To be fair, Houston’s offensive production hasn’t been happening in a vacuum. Eight of their 13 games have come against defenses ranked in or near the top 10 in total or scoring defense.
In those matchups, the Texans have averaged 19.75 points and gone 4-4. Against more forgiving defenses, they’ve averaged 25 points and posted a 4-1 record.
That’s a nearly six-point swing in scoring and a noticeable jump in win percentage - and it highlights something important: offensive coordinator Nick Caley’s unit has generally handled lesser defenses well. The Cardinals, with their bottom-tier metrics, fall squarely into that category.
Stroud Settling In
Quarterback C.J. Stroud is only two games removed from a concussion, but he’s already led the Texans to back-to-back 20-point performances.
That’s a positive sign not just for his health, but for the offense as a whole. Stroud is still building chemistry with his weapons, and a big game this Sunday could go a long way in boosting both his confidence and the offense’s overall momentum.
With just three games left after this one, Houston has a real shot to close the season strong - potentially finishing 12-5 if they can clean up their offensive execution. That starts with taking care of business against a team like Arizona, where the matchup clearly favors them on paper.
The Bottom Line
The Texans don’t need to reinvent the wheel this weekend - they just need to do what they’ve done all year when facing subpar defenses: execute. If they can put up points and play complementary football with their elite defense, they’ll not only stay in the playoff mix, but they’ll start to look like a team nobody wants to face in January.
Sunday at NRG Stadium could be the turning point for an offense that’s been just a few plays away from becoming the complete package.