Texans Eye 10 Wins, Division Race Tightens Heading into Week 16
The Houston Texans are heating up at just the right time. After taking care of business against the Arizona Cardinals, they’ve now got their sights set on a 10-win season - which would mark the third straight year they’ve hit double digits in the win column. That kind of consistency is no small feat in today’s NFL, and they’ve got a golden opportunity to keep the momentum rolling with a Week 16 matchup against the struggling Las Vegas Raiders.
At 9-5, the Texans are right in the thick of the AFC playoff race. They’re just one game back of the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC South, and with the Jags heading into a brutal road game against the 12-2 Denver Broncos, the door is cracked open for Houston to make a serious move.
Let’s break down where things stand and what’s at stake as we head into a pivotal weekend across the AFC.
AFC Playoff Picture: Texans in, But Not Safe Yet
Here’s where the AFC playoff standings sit heading into Week 16:
| Seed | Team | Record | Week 16 Opponent | Playoff % |
|---|
| 1 | Denver Broncos (AFC West Champs) | 12-2 | vs. Jaguars | Clinched |
| 2 | New England Patriots (AFC East) | 11-3 | at Ravens (SNF) | 99% | | 3 | Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC South) | 10-4 | at Broncos | 99% |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC North) | 8-6 | at Lions | 66% | | 5 | LA Chargers (Wild Card) | 10-4 | at Cowboys | 96% |
| 6 | Buffalo Bills (Wild Card) | 10-4 | at Browns | 99% | | 7 | Houston Texans (Wild Card) | 9-5 | vs.
Raiders | 98% |
In the Hunt:
- Indianapolis Colts (8-6) - vs. 49ers (MNF) - 8%
- Baltimore Ravens (7-7) - vs. Patriots (SNF) - 34%
The Texans have done enough to control their own destiny - barely. With a 98% chance to make the playoffs, they’re in strong position, but there’s little margin for error.
Realistically, they can afford only one more loss down the stretch if they want to stay in the postseason mix. A stumble could open the door for the Colts to sneak back into the picture in Week 18.
AFC South: Still Up for Grabs
| Team | Record | Playoff % | Win Division % | First-Round Bye % |
|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 10-4 | 99% | 60% | 7% | | Houston Texans | 9-5 | 98% | 37% | 6% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8-6 | 8% | 0% | 1% | | Tennessee Titans | 2-12 | Eliminated | - | - |
This division is far from settled. Jacksonville still holds the edge, but Houston is right there.
A Jags loss to the Broncos - who’ve rattled off 11 straight wins - would create a tie at the top of the AFC South. And based on current tiebreakers, Houston would actually leapfrog Jacksonville for the division lead.
That’s how tight this race has become.
The Colts, meanwhile, are fading fast. Just two weeks ago, they had a 68% chance to make the playoffs.
Now? That number’s plummeted to 8%.
Their Monday night matchup against the 49ers is a must-win if they want to keep any postseason hopes alive.
Raiders vs. Texans: More Than Just Another Win
This week’s matchup against the Raiders may look like a layup on paper - Las Vegas is 2-12 and playing out the string - but it carries real weight. For starters, it’s an in-conference game, which matters big-time for tiebreaker scenarios.
A win keeps Houston in control. A loss wouldn’t knock them out of the playoff picture, but it would drop their odds to 92% and potentially open the door for the Colts to sneak back in.
Injuries have been a concern for the Texans over the past few weeks, so staying healthy might be just as important as getting the W. With two tougher games looming - at the Chargers and then a season finale against the Colts - Houston needs to come out of this one clean.
Interestingly, a Texans win doesn’t move the needle much in terms of playoff probability. The bigger swing comes if the Colts lose. That’s the scenario that gives Houston real breathing room.
Week 16 Matchups That Matter
Jaguars at Broncos (Sunday, 1:05 PM EST)
This is the big one for Texans fans.
A Denver win would tie Houston with Jacksonville in the standings and potentially flip the division lead. Broncos are on fire, and they’re chasing the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Texans fans might want to swap their Battle Red for a little Sunset Orange this weekend.
Patriots at Ravens (Sunday Night Football, 8:20 PM EST)
While this one doesn’t directly impact Houston, it’s a key game in the broader AFC playoff landscape.
The Patriots can all but eliminate the Ravens with a win, which would take one more team out of the Texans' rear-view mirror. Every bit of separation helps.
What’s Ahead for Houston
Here’s the Texans’ final stretch:
- Week 16: vs. Raiders (2-12)
- Week 17: at Chargers (10-4)
- Week 18: vs.
Colts (8-6)
The path is clear - win out, and the Texans are not just in the playoffs, but potentially hosting a game as AFC South champs. Drop one, and they’re still likely in, but things get a little dicey. Drop two, and suddenly the Colts or Ravens could be back in the picture.
Bottom line: the Texans are in a strong spot, but the job isn’t done. Not even close. The next three weeks will define their season - and maybe the future of the franchise.