The Houston Texans find themselves in unfamiliar territory this week: double-digit favorites in an NFL game. That’s not something you see every Sunday, and it speaks volumes about where this team is - and where their opponent, the Las Vegas Raiders, currently stands.
The Raiders are in the middle of a season that’s turned into more of a postmortem than a playoff push. And that brings us to the big question hanging over Vegas: what happens next?
Pete Carroll’s Future in Vegas: One-and-Done?
Pete Carroll’s first year in Las Vegas hasn’t gone according to plan. There’s growing belief around the league that this might be his only season at the helm.
At 74 years old - and turning 75 next fall - Carroll doesn’t exactly fit the mold of a coach leading a full-scale rebuild. And make no mistake, that’s where the Raiders are headed.
There’s been chatter about a potential agreement between Carroll and the Raiders that would allow him to “retire” while still collecting a portion of the money he’s owed. That might be the most graceful exit for both sides, especially with owner Mark Davis already on the hook for previous coaching contracts.
The only real case for keeping Carroll? Continuity.
Since relocating to Las Vegas in 2020, the Raiders have cycled through four full-time head coaches (five if you count Rich Bisaccia’s interim run). But even then, Carroll was never a long-term solution - and the clock seems to be ticking.
Geno Smith’s Future Tied to Coaching Decision
The quarterback situation is just as murky. Geno Smith was brought in to be a stabilizing presence, but that stability hasn’t materialized. If Carroll is out, there’s a good chance Smith follows.
Financially, the Raiders would eat $18.5 million in dead cap by cutting Smith this offseason, but they’d also save $8 million. That’s a trade-off the front office might be willing to make, especially considering Smith’s $26.5 million cap hit if he stays.
At 35, Smith isn’t a long-term answer - and given how he’s played this year, the argument could be made that keeping him would be more costly than letting him go. The wildcard? The draft.
If the Raiders land the No. 1 overall pick, it’s hard to imagine Smith sticking around. But if they fall outside the top spots and can’t grab a top-tier QB like Fernando Mendoza or Dante Moore, Smith could return as a bridge option. Still, if you’re betting on it, the smart money says Geno won’t be in Vegas come 2026.
The Draft: All Eyes on a Quarterback
The Raiders are currently tied for the worst record in the league, and that puts them in prime position to finally solve their quarterback carousel. Since Derek Carr’s departure after the 2022 season, the team has started seven different quarterbacks - a revolving door that’s included everyone from Jimmy Garoppolo to Kenny Pickett.
Last year, they just missed out on the quarterback-rich draft class, watching Bo Nix go to a division rival. They passed on other options like Cam Ward, Jaxson Dart, and Tyler Shough - decisions that now look a bit more painful in hindsight.
If the Raiders are in position to control the top of the 2026 draft, general manager John Spytek has to pull the trigger on a quarterback - and Mendoza is the name to watch. This franchise needs a long-term solution under center, and this draft might finally give them the opportunity to reset.
AFC West Outlook: Is the Chiefs’ Reign Ending?
With the Broncos seemingly in control of the division this year, it’s fair to ask: is the Chiefs’ run finally coming to an end?
Don’t count them out just yet. As long as Patrick Mahomes is under center, Kansas City is a threat.
But there are signs of wear and tear. Mahomes is coming off a torn ACL, and the roster - especially the offensive line - has some serious question marks heading into next season.
Still, for Raiders fans, there’s no opponent more satisfying to beat than the Chiefs. That rivalry runs deep, even if Las Vegas hasn’t won a division game in the last two seasons. Some fans still talk about that Christmas Day win at Arrowhead a couple of years ago like it was yesterday.
Texans vs. Raiders: Can Vegas Cover the Spread?
FanDuel has the Raiders as 14.5-point underdogs heading into their matchup with Houston - and that might not be generous enough.
Las Vegas managed just 75 total yards of offense last week in a 31-0 loss to the Eagles, a team that had dropped three straight coming in. Now, they face a Texans defense that’s been one of the league’s most consistent units. It’s hard to see the Raiders keeping this one close.
If you’re looking at prop bets, keep an eye on the sack totals. If Will Anderson Jr. or Danielle Hunter are listed at 1.5 sacks or lower, the over might be worth a serious look. The Raiders’ offensive line has struggled all season, and this could be a long day for whoever’s under center.
Final Thoughts
The Texans are on the rise, and the Raiders are searching for answers. It’s a tale of two franchises heading in opposite directions - one building something special, the other bracing for another rebuild.
But this is the NFL, and things can turn quickly. Raiders fans are hoping that turn starts soon. Just not this weekend.