The Houston Texans are entering 2026 with real AFC ambitions, which is why a 9-8 forecast lands like a pretty hard shrug.
The Athletic’s Jacob Robinson recently pegged Houston for a middle-of-the-road finish, and his reasoning centered on two things: a brutal schedule and the idea that the Texans may not be able to keep living in one-score-game territory. Robinson noted that Houston went 7-2 in one-score games after its Week 6 bye last season, a run that helped power a 12-5 finish, and he’s not convinced that kind of luck or execution shows up again against what he called the league’s seventh-toughest schedule.
He wrote, "9-8. After its Week 6 bye last year, Houston closed the season with a 7-2 record in one-score games, which contributed to an impressive 12-5 record.
I’m skeptical the Texans repeat that against one of the league’s toughest schedules (seventh overall). Or maybe I’m just still upset about my 2025 darkhorse Super Bowl pick losing a winnable game in New England?
If Stroud takes a step and the run game emerges, this team could also finish atop the AFC. There’s a wide-range here, given how talented the defense is."
There’s no mystery about where the skepticism comes from. The Texans do have a difficult path ahead, and banking on another 7-2 stretch in tight games is a risky bet. But reducing Houston’s outlook to whether it can duplicate last year’s close-game record misses the bigger story.
This roster is still built around a young quarterback, a defense loaded with talent, and an offense that could look far more balanced than it did a year ago. Houston has poured resources into the offensive line and the run game, and that matters because it gives the offense a better chance to stay on schedule instead of leaning so heavily on Stroud.
And Stroud is the swing factor. If he makes the jump people around the team expect, the Texans could be noticeably better than they were in 2025. Add a more reliable rushing attack, and the whole operation gets easier for Houston’s quarterback.
That’s why Robinson’s own ceiling note stands out. He sees a path to the top of the AFC, which makes the 9-8 projection feel especially cautious. The Texans might not duplicate every piece of their 12-5 season, but this is still a team that looks built to handle a tough schedule better than a .500 record suggests.
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Higgins is also building real chemistry with Stroud, which matters in an offense that already features a deep receiving group and plenty of competition for touches. Even with so many options in the mix, Higgins looks positioned to carve out a meaningful role this season, and if that connection keeps growing, Houston could have another reliable piece for its passing game when the games start to count. [Read more 🡒]