C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans are starting to look like a team that’s figured out who they are-and more importantly, who they can be.
After a rocky 0-3 start that had fans bracing for another long season, the Texans have flipped the script. Now sitting at 7-5, riding a four-game win streak, and holding onto the 8th seed in the AFC, Houston is very much in the playoff conversation.
And a big reason why? The steady rise of their second-year quarterback.
Stroud’s 2025 campaign has been under the microscope from the jump. A new offensive coordinator in Nick Caley, a reshuffled offensive line, and a wide receiver room that’s still finding its rhythm-none of that made for an easy transition. But Stroud’s handled the turbulence like a pro, and the numbers tell the story of a quarterback growing into his role.
In wins this season, Stroud’s been surgical: completing over 75% of his passes for 1,071 yards, 8 touchdowns, just 2 picks, and a passer rating north of 112. That’s the kind of efficiency that keeps chains moving and defenses guessing.
But in losses, the picture changes-his completion rate drops to 58%, with more interceptions than touchdowns and a passer rating that dips below 80. The difference between “good Stroud” and “struggling Stroud” has been night and day.
What’s working when he’s on? It’s all about rhythm and control.
In Nick Caley’s system, Stroud thrives when he’s playing within the offense-taking what the defense gives him, hitting high-percentage throws, and letting his playmakers do the work after the catch. That approach not only keeps the offense on schedule, it helps Houston dominate time of possession, which in turn gives their league-best defense time to reset and regroup.
It’s complementary football at its best.
But when Stroud presses-whether it’s trying to make a hero throw into tight coverage or refusing to throw the ball away-things unravel. He’s taken several drive-killing sacks by holding onto the ball too long, and some of his interceptions have come from trying to force plays that just weren’t there. For Houston to keep climbing, Stroud has to stay disciplined and trust the structure around him.
That’ll be especially important this Sunday night when the Texans head into Arrowhead to face a Kansas City Chiefs team that’s been wobbling. The Chiefs are 6-6 and look more vulnerable than we’ve seen in years. While all eyes will naturally turn to the Mahomes-Reid duo, the real chess match might be between Stroud and Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo.
Spagnuolo’s defense has been leaking lately. Over the last four games, Kansas City’s allowed 28, 22, 20, and 31 points, while giving up big chunks of yardage through the air-273, 295, 181, and 320 passing yards, respectively. That’s not the kind of trend you want to see heading into a game against a quarterback who’s heating up.
The formula is pretty clear: when opponents score 20 or more against the Chiefs this season, Kansas City is just 2-6. So if Stroud can protect the football, stay efficient, and get this offense into the 20+ point range, Houston’s got a real shot to walk out of Arrowhead with a win. Add in a takeaway or two from Mahomes, and the Texans could notch just their second win ever against the Reid-Mahomes era Chiefs.
More importantly, they’d move to 8-5 and put themselves in prime position for a playoff push that felt like a long shot back in September. This team was written off early, but with Stroud settling in, the defense holding strong, and the offense finding its groove, the Texans are no longer just a feel-good story-they’re a legitimate threat in the AFC.