Week 9 of the 2026 NFL season closes out the first half of the schedule, and the board is loaded with spreads that invite a strong stance. Here’s how I’m playing every game.
The Ravens are in a rough spot with their top two quarterbacks unavailable, and Joe Fagnano is set for his first NFL start on a short week. That’s enough for me to stay away from Baltimore entirely.
Cincinnati, on the other hand, looks like a team that should be laying more than it is. Joe Burrow is sitting atop the league in just about every passing category, and the Bengals’ defense has taken a real step forward this season.
Denver keeps finding ways to win tight games, but the bigger picture matters too. The Broncos have already dealt with the toughest schedule in the league, and this week feels like another spot where they show they’re a level above a team like Carolina.
Indianapolis is in sell-off mode and clearly focused on a rebuild. Even with Jonathan Taylor in the backfield, the Colts don’t have enough offense to keep up with Dallas.
With Deshaun Watson out, I’m not buying Shedeur Sanders in this matchup. New Orleans comes out of its Week 8 bye ready to attack.
Kansas City hasn’t earned this kind of number. The Jets have been better than their reputation, especially on offense, and they’ve also been on the wrong side of some bad luck.
Detroit’s injury list keeps getting longer, and the defense is still one of the league’s weakest. Laying a full touchdown on the road is too much, even against Miami.
Philadelphia is the one team I want no part of. By almost every metric, the Eagles have been the NFL’s worst team, and that’s a dangerous profile for anyone who came into the year expecting a contender.
The Rams are another team I’m willing to back. They started slowly, but there’s still value in buying low, and their offense is at its best when the run game is working. Washington’s run defense gives them a path.
Houston gets the nod against a Chargers offense that has been stuck near the bottom of the league in nearly every meaningful category. After a bye, the Texans’ defense should have the upper hand again.
Las Vegas has the record, but not the profile of a true contender. The Raiders can’t run the ball, and their defense sits in the bottom five. San Francisco should be able to move the football after its bye.
One matchup looks like a true toss-up, and I’ll take the road team with the points in a game between two very similar squads.
Seattle’s offense has leaned too heavily on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and now Sam Darnold is out with an injury. That makes it hard to trust the Seahawks to win by margin.
Tampa Bay brings the kind of formula that travels well: an elite defense and a strong running game. Chicago is a sell-high team here, especially on a short week after an emotional win over the defending champions.
Buffalo’s defense is the issue, and it’s going to catch up with them sooner rather than later. If Minnesota can slow down the Bills’ rushing attack, the Vikings are very much alive to pull the upset.
In Other News...
Texans Trade Deadline Focus Just Shifted To One Critical Roster Hole
With the NFL trade deadline closing in, the Texans find themselves weighing more than just whether to buy or sell at 2-5. Houston has obvious areas to address, and the conversation around possible roster upgrades has centered on the running game, the offensive line and the secondary, all spots that have shown up as pressure points during a disappointing start.
Devin Singletary has been floated as a possible answer in the backfield, while Landon Dickerson would fit the kind of interior line help the Texans could use if they choose to chase it. Jalen Pitre, meanwhile, underscores how much the secondary matters to this team right now, especially with injuries and uneven play forcing the Texans to keep evaluating where the next fix might come from. [Read more 🡒]
Texans Run Game Issues Are Fueling A Trade Deadline Dilemma
Houstons running game has become one of the clearest pressure points on the roster, and it is landing right in the middle of a team that wants to lean on the ground game. Injuries to key backs have complicated the picture, and the Texans coaching staff has not been able to get the sort of consistent production needed to support the style they want to play.
So the trade deadline has started to feel like a possible escape hatch, with Derrick Henry emerging as the name that naturally fits the conversation if Baltimore were willing to listen. The Texans have draft picks and other possible assets to work with, but for now the idea remains speculative, leaving Houston to weigh whether it can fix the issue internally or has to chase a bigger answer before the deadline passes. [Read more 🡒]
C.J. Stroud's Next Texans Debate Is Getting Harder To Ignore
C.J. Strouds second season has already pushed the Texans into a familiar kind of quarterback conversation, the sort that goes beyond weekly box scores and into the long-term shape of the roster. A recent statistical look at his profile compared him with a pair of very different passers, Kirk Cousins and Caleb Williams, using a composite ranking and similarity scores built from a range of performance metrics. For Houston, that kind of comparison matters because it frames Stroud not just as a young starter, but as part of a broader quarterback class whose production and trajectory can affect how teams think about value.
The contract angle is what makes the debate harder to ignore. If Strouds statistical neighborhood includes veterans and rising young quarterbacks tied to extension discussions, then the Texans are staring at the same kind of decision every team eventually faces with a franchise passer: how to translate promising play into a deal that fits both the players standing and the teams future. The numbers do not settle the issue on their own, but they do sharpen the stakes around Strouds next chapter in Houston. [Read more 🡒]