The Colts and Texans are both sitting at 0-2, and that’s enough to make Sunday feel less like an early-season checkpoint and more like a survival test. In a conversation with Battle Red Blog, Chris Shepard of Stampede Blue said Indianapolis isn’t exactly panic-free right now, but he also pointed to the kind of roster churn that can make September ugly before it gets better.
“Most Colts fans believe the sky is falling and given the history of the last decade they may be right to believe that.”
Shepard said he’s “less concerned than most but concerned all the same,” noting that the Colts made major changes on defense this offseason. He pointed to the departures of linebacker Zaire Franklin and corner Kenny Moore as part of a soft reset of the leadership group, with Indianapolis bringing in a wave of younger players and lower-level free agents. The result, so far, has been a defense that’s still trying to get up to speed.
Week 2 showed some progress, according to Shepard, but he doesn’t expect the unit to really find its footing until week 8 or 9, if it comes together at all. He also pointed out that the first two opponents made life difficult in a hurry.
Baltimore and Kansas City were a brutal opening stretch for a young defense with so many new pieces, and even if C.J. Stroud isn’t on that same tier, Shepard doesn’t think Houston suddenly gets an easy path in Week 3.
Injuries are part of the picture too. Shepard said Sauce Gardner left Sunday night’s game in the second half with an injury, then returned while clearly dealing with pain.
He’ll be watching that situation closely during the week, especially after Gardner’s strong start through two games. Alec Pierce also exited Sunday night’s game, adding another layer of concern for Indianapolis.
As for fresh faces in this matchup, Shepard highlighted rookie safety AJ Halucy, a third-round pick out of LSU who has been given every chance to earn snaps at strong safety. He said Halucy has been fine overall, though rookie mistakes have shown up. Even so, the Colts appear likely to keep feeding him playing time.
Two rookie linebackers are also moving into the mix: Bryce Boettcher of Oregon and CJ Allen of Georgia. Allen missed more than a month of training camp because of injury and is still working back, while both players have been gradually carving out roles in the rotation. Shepard expects another bump in snaps for both in Week 3.
When the conversation turned to the AFC South, Shepard didn’t hesitate to name the Jaguars as his biggest concern, with the Texans right behind them. He credited Houston for figuring things out last season and said defensive success is hard to repeat year to year, but he still views DeMeco Ryans as a strong coach who should help steady things quickly.
Jacksonville, meanwhile, got praise for the Trevor Lawrence-Liam Coen pairing. Shepard said he’s less convinced Coen will hold up long term than he is on Ryans, and he believes the Jaguars’ offense gives them the edge for now. Still, he said Houston’s recent history gives the Texans the advantage in the division at this moment.
His final read on the AFC South had Jacksonville finishing first, with hope that Indianapolis and Houston could be fighting for a wild-card spot in Week 18.
As for Sunday, Shepard sees a tight one.
“I think that’s a fair line.Both teams are desperate and both are capable of winning. I see this one coming down to the wire, with both teams trading shots until the final moments.”
He added that anything can happen in a game like this, and while he’d like to see the Colts pull it out, Houston being favored makes sense.
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