The NFL’s Week 1 picks are leaning hard toward Houston, but the confidence level comes with a catch.
On the NFL YouTube channel’s preview of the Texans-Bills matchup, a panel of 10 NFL experts made Houston the clear favorite over Josh Allen and Buffalo in the team’s latest trip to the Lone Star State. Nine of the 10 picked the Texans, with only Perna siding with the Bills.
Still, the predictions weren’t exactly a vote of confidence in a runaway. If Houston wins, the margin figures to be razor-thin.
In nine Texans victories projected by the panel, only four had Houston winning by a field goal. The other five had the Texans escaping by just 1-2 points. That kind of spread says plenty: the Texans may be expected to win, but not by much.
The offense got another cool reception.
All offseason, Houston’s attack has been talked up as a group that should look sharper and more dangerous, from C.J. Stroud to Woody Marks, from the tight end room to Nico Collins.
But not a single analyst forecasted a 30-point outing against Buffalo. Even more striking, eight of the experts didn’t think the Texans would even get to 25.
That leaves plenty of room for concern, especially with expectations already pointed upward for that side of the ball. If Stroud struggles, if the offensive line wobbles, or if the run game never gets going, Houston could be staring at the kind of slow start nobody around the team wants to see.
Perna’s lone loss prediction was the harshest of the bunch: a 21-10 Bills win. That kind of result would send up immediate warning lights in Houston, dropping the Texans to 0-1 and putting the spotlight squarely on what comes next against Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 2.
It would also ramp up the pressure around Stroud and the Texans’ contract negotiations, while adding heat around offensive coordinator Nick Caley. And even with defensive additions like Bradley Chubb and C.J. Gardner-Johnson, there would be little comfort in opening the season with an offense that barely moves the ball.
Houston knows what that kind of start looks like. Last season, the Texans opened 0-3 after scoring 9 points against the Los Angeles Rams, 19 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and 10 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Another sluggish beginning would land with the same warning label - only this time, nobody around the Texans should want to go back there.
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