The Houston Texans are staring at the same number they were last year at this time: 3-5. And just like that 2025 team, this group is trying to turn an uneven first half into a late-season surge that keeps its playoff streak alive.
That’s where the comparison gets interesting. Last season, Houston was 3-5 after a gritty loss to the 6-2 Denver Broncos, then ripped off nine straight wins to finish the job and grab the AFC’s fifth seed. This year’s team is again sitting at 3-5 through Week Nine, and the question is whether the same kind of rescue act is still on the table.
The AFC South looks different now, but not necessarily better for Houston in practical terms. A year ago, the Colts were 7-2, the Jaguars were 5-3, the Texans were 3-5, and the Titans were 1-8. This season, Jacksonville leads the division at 6-2, Houston is second at 3-5, Indianapolis has crashed to 2-7, and Tennessee remains 1-8.
On paper, that puts the Texans in a stronger divisional spot than they had last year. In reality, Jacksonville has become a tough target.
The Jaguars have the Titans twice in their next three games, plus Dallas, Washington, and Indianapolis still ahead. That gives them a clear path to 11 wins, and they’re also sitting as the league’s most efficient offense and most dominant defense statistically.
Houston is three games back, so the more realistic focus shifts to the AFC race as a whole.
That race is crowded, and it’s not exactly friendly. In 2025, the Texans were on the outside looking in at 3-5, but the AFC picture around them was different.
The Colts, Patriots, and Broncos were all 7-2, the Steelers were 5-3, the Bills were 6-2, the Chargers were 6-3, and the Jaguars were 5-3. Houston was ninth in the conference then, with the Ravens and Bengals also hanging around the middle of the pack.
This year’s AFC standings tell a different story at the top, even if the Texans’ record is the same. The Bills are 7-1, the Broncos are 7-2, the Jaguars are 6-2, the Steelers are 6-2, the Chiefs are 6-2, the Bengals are 6-2, and the Patriots are 5-4. Houston sits 11th at 3-5, behind Cleveland and ahead of the Jets, Colts, Dolphins, Titans, and Chargers.
Still, the numbers say the conference as a whole is tracking almost exactly where it was a year ago. The AFC has 65 combined wins through this point in 2026, the same total it had at this stage in 2025. The top seven playoff seeds also match up perfectly in the aggregate, with 43 combined wins.
Houston’s schedule has changed too. Last year’s remaining slate was loaded with AFC games: Jacksonville, Tennessee, Buffalo, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Arizona, Las Vegas, the Chargers, and Indianapolis again. This season, the Texans still have work to do, but the path is different: at Cleveland, home against Indianapolis, home against Baltimore, at Pittsburgh, at Washington, home against Jacksonville, at Philadelphia, at Green Bay, and home against Tennessee.
The margin for error is tiny. The current playoff math points to 11 wins as the magic number, which means Houston would need to go 8-1 the rest of the way to reach a Wild Card spot. That leaves very little room for slip-ups, especially with games against the Packers, Jaguars, and Browns still on the board.
Houston’s best-case scenario still depends on more than just its own play. The Texans benefited last year from a run of AFC opponents and used that stretch to pull themselves into the postseason picture by beating teams directly in the race.
This time, the path is shakier. The Texans would need help from a Ravens team without Lamar Jackson, a Steelers team that hasn’t faced much competition, and a Browns team that is still young and unproven.
Even then, Houston would still be only eighth in the AFC. The Texans’ playoff hopes are not fully in their own hands, and that’s the biggest difference between now and last year’s run.
They need the right teams to stumble, and they need to take care of business themselves. To get to the playoffs for a fourth straight season, they’ll have to heat up at exactly the right time.
In Other News...
Texans Made A Quiet O-Line Decision That Could Matter Later
Braden Smith surfaced as a trade candidate ahead of the deadline, with multiple teams showing interest in the veteran right tackle. Even so, the Texans chose not to move him, a small but telling decision for a team that has spent plenty of time trying to stabilize its offensive line while keeping enough depth on hand for the stretch run.
Smith has been out of the rotation in Houston, which made him an obvious name to watch when the deadline approached. But the Texans opted to hold onto him rather than turn him into draft capital, signaling that they valued insurance up front more than a future pick and leaving open the possibility that his presence could matter later if the line gets tested. [Read more 🡒]
Texans Leave A Risky Backfield Question Hanging Over Playoff Push
The Texans stayed quiet at the 2026 NFL trade deadline, even with their backfield under obvious strain. David Montgomery has been sidelined by a groin injury and is considered week-to-week, while Woody Marks has been absorbing a heavy workload as Houston tries to keep its offense on schedule down the stretch.
Houstons decision not to add a running back leaves the team leaning on Montgomerys recovery and Marks ability to hold up to the load. For a club pushing toward the playoffs, it is a calculated gamble, one that puts a lot of pressure on the current group to stay healthy and productive without any late help coming in. [Read more 🡒]
Texans Get A Deshaun Watson Reminder Right Before Browns Visit
The Browns are bringing Deshaun Watson back into the starting lineup just in time for their Nov. 15 meeting with Houston, a reminder of how much this matchup still carries for Texans fans. Watson had been sidelined in concussion protocol, and while rookie backup Shedeur Sanders got the previous start and played well, Cleveland is handing the offense back to the veteran for the trip.
For Houston, it adds another layer to a game that already had plenty of attention attached to it. Watsons return means the Texans will be seeing a familiar face under center again, and it comes with the kind of storyline that tends to follow him wherever he goes. The Browns have made their decision, and now the focus shifts to how Houston handles one more chapter in a long-running connection. [Read more 🡒]