Bundle up, Foxborough - it’s shaping up to be a classic New England snow game.
As the Patriots prepare to host the red-hot Houston Texans in the Divisional Round, all signs point to a winter storm rolling through Gillette Stadium just in time for kickoff. Snow is expected to start Sunday morning and continue into the early hours of Monday, with projections calling for 6 to 12 inches blanketing the region from Connecticut to Boston. In other words, it’s going to be cold, it’s going to be messy, and it’s going to feel like a throwback January playoff game in Foxborough.
That’s a setting the Patriots are more than comfortable with.
Mike Vrabel’s squad is coming off a gritty 16-3 win over the Chargers, a defensive slugfest that showcased the kind of toughness and discipline that tends to travel well in the postseason - and in bad weather. Now, with a trip to the AFC Championship Game on the line, they’ll face a Texans team that’s young, talented, and absolutely brimming with confidence.
Led by rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, Houston has been one of the league’s most compelling stories this season.
But for all the attention on Stroud and the Texans’ offense, it’s their defense that’s really turned heads. Houston finished second in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing just 17.4 points per game - a testament to both their scheme and their personnel.
Derek Stingley Jr. has emerged as a true lockdown corner, the kind of player who can erase a No. 1 wideout and shrink the field. Up front, the pass-rushing tandem of Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. has been a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks, combining speed, power, and relentless motor off the edge. If the Patriots’ offensive line can’t hold up, it could be a long day for their passing game.
But here’s where things get interesting: weather like this can be the ultimate equalizer. Snow games tend to slow things down, neutralize speed, and put a premium on ball security and fundamentals. That’s where playoff experience - and cold-weather experience - can make all the difference.
Historically, the Patriots have had the Texans’ number in the postseason. They’re 2-0 against Houston in the playoffs, with wins in the 2012 and 2016 Divisional Rounds.
Of course, those matchups came during the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era - a different time, a different team. But the Patriots’ identity hasn’t strayed far from those roots: physical football, smart situational play, and a defense that forces you to earn every yard.
This game has all the makings of a classic - a battle between a team that’s been here before and one that’s trying to prove it belongs. The Texans have the talent to pull off the upset, no question. But in a snow-covered Gillette Stadium, with a trip to the AFC title game on the line, the margin for error gets razor thin.
Expect a close one. And expect the weather to be more than just a backdrop - it could be the X-factor that tips the scales.