The AFC Championship Game is set, and while most eyes are locked on the quarterbacks-Drake Maye’s big-stage debut and Jarrett Stidham’s unexpected spotlight-it’s the New England Patriots' defense that might just be the X-factor in this showdown against the Denver Broncos.
Let’s be clear: New England’s defense has completely flipped the switch this postseason. After a regular season where the offense carried much of the weight, the Patriots’ defense has surged to the forefront, cranking up the pressure and playing with a level of aggression that’s changed the tone of their playoff run.
A Defensive Turnaround That’s Hard to Ignore
During the regular season, New England’s defense was solid-seventh in the league in points per drive allowed at 1.79. But in the playoffs?
They’ve cut that number by more than half, surrendering just 0.79 points per drive, second only to Seattle in these playoffs. That’s not just improvement-that’s transformation.
They’re forcing more punts, disrupting rhythm, and their defensive EPA per play has jumped from 0.06 to 0.34. In other words, they’re not just surviving-they’re dictating terms.
Blitzing With Purpose
The biggest shift? The Patriots have turned up the heat with the blitz.
Their 40.6% blitz rate in the playoffs is a massive leap from their 27.6% mark during the regular season. And it’s not just about sending extra bodies-it’s about what happens when they do.
Their havoc rate when blitzing has spiked to 37.5%. That’s a fancy way of saying: when they bring pressure, bad things happen for opposing offenses.
Interim defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr and head coach Mike Vrabel have leaned into their personnel strengths, and it’s paying off. They’re not just blitzing for the sake of it-they’re blitzing with a plan, and it’s creating chaos in the best way possible.
Owning the Trenches
It starts up front, especially in the run game. The Patriots are giving up just 3.1 yards per carry in the playoffs and rank second in run-game havoc rate at 25.2%, trailing only the Texans. This isn’t a big, gap-control front-it’s a quick, disruptive unit built around the likes of Christian Barmore and Milton Williams.
Instead of trying to hold the line, New England’s defensive tackles are attacking it. They’re using stunts and twists to confuse blocking schemes and shoot gaps, and it’s working. Whether it’s Cory Durden and K’Lavon Chaisson running a pick-and-roll-style twist to blow up a duo run or Elijah Ponder darting inside off a Barmore move, the Patriots are creating negative plays by design.
They’ve clearly seen something on tape, especially against duo run concepts, and they’ve been relentless in exploiting it. The Broncos would be wise to expect more of the same.
Making Life Miserable for Quarterbacks
Now let’s talk about the passing game, where New England’s aggression has really turned heads.
In their last two playoff games, they blitzed Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud on 42% and 45% of dropbacks, respectively. And while Herbert managed to survive, Stroud struggled mightily-just 6-of-18 for 67 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions against the blitz.
This isn’t an accident. With Milton Williams missing time due to a high ankle sprain, the Patriots have lacked consistent four-man pass rushers.
So instead of waiting for pressure to develop, they’ve decided to create it themselves. Their pressure rate jumps from 36.4% when rushing four to 49.3% when they bring extra heat.
That aggressive approach only works if you trust your secondary. And New England does. With Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis III, and Marcus Jones holding it down on the back end, they’ve got the personnel to hold up in man coverage while the front seven goes hunting.
They’ve even disguised blitzes well against under-center looks, catching the Texans off guard multiple times. That’s the kind of tactical edge that could be huge against Denver.
The Stidham Factor
Facing Jarrett Stidham, who’s stepping in for his first extended action in a while, the Patriots’ aggressive defense could be the ultimate test. Broncos head coach Sean Payton says Stidham is “gonna rip it” in the AFC title game-but if New England keeps dialing up pressure the way they have, Stidham’s going to have to do it under duress.
Yes, playing this kind of aggressive defense comes with risk. One wrong read, one missed tackle, and it can burn you. But the Patriots are playing like a unit that understands the stakes and has the confidence-and the scheme-to take those calculated risks.
Final Thought
This version of the Patriots’ defense isn’t the one we saw during the regular season. They’ve turned up the volume, leaned into their strengths, and built a game plan around chaos. If they can keep that energy going-and continue to make life miserable for opposing quarterbacks-this could be the group that carries New England back to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2019.
Forget the headlines about quarterbacks for a moment. The real story heading into Sunday might be the Patriots’ defense-and the storm they’re bringing with them.