The Jaguars arrive in London with the advantage on the board, but the Texans are the team drawing the upset buzz heading into Week 6.
Jacksonville is listed as a 2.5-point favorite after opening as a three-point favorite, while the total has slipped from 43.5 to 42.5 ahead of Sunday morning’s kickoff. That comes after the Jaguars escaped Week 5 with a last-second field goal from Cam Little, a narrow call that pushed them to 4-1 and kept them two games clear in the AFC South. Houston, meanwhile, finally got into the win column by beating the winless Tennessee Titans, and now has a chance to turn that result into something bigger with a division road test in an international setting.
This is a huge game for both sides, even if the stakes look different on paper. The Jaguars have a chance to strengthen their grip on the division and keep building toward the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The Texans need a win to stay within striking distance after an 0-4 start that knocked them off track early.
There’s also a recent history edge worth noting. Houston has won three of the last four meetings between these teams, even though Jacksonville took the division in 2025 and finished with the No. 3 seed in the AFC. That context matters here, especially with the Texans trying to claw their way back into the AFC South race.
A big reason for the optimism on Houston’s side is Nico Collins. The Texans’ offense has looked completely different with him available, scoring 31, 30 and 26 points in the three games he played, compared with six and 17 in the two games without him.
His presence gives C.J. Stroud and company a much better chance to keep pace with a Jacksonville offense that has been hit with explosive plays all season.
The Jaguars’ defense has held up well in spots, but it still ranks 22nd in the NFL in yards per play allowed. That’s part of why this matchup feels a little less one-sided than the record suggests. Jacksonville also barely survived a banged-up Eagles team in Week 5, and there’s still a sense that the Jaguars may not be quite ready to be crowned the AFC’s top team.
On the Houston side, the defense has not matched the level it showed in 2025, when it finished No. 1 in the NFL in EPA/Play. That drop-off helped fuel the team’s rocky start, but there’s belief that unit is better than it has looked so far. The Texans also have a statistical case on that side of the ball, with their defense outranking Jacksonville in success rate, even if the Jaguars come out ahead in opponent EPA.
Iain MacMillan is leaning into that case and taking Houston to cover. He pointed to the possibility of momentum swinging the other way for these two teams, with the Texans starting cold and the Jaguars opening hot.
He also noted that Jacksonville ranks 10th in offensive luck and second in defensive luck according to RBSDM.com, while Houston sits outside the top 10 in both categories. MacMillan said he trusts success rate more than the explosive-play numbers when it comes to long-term consistency, which is part of why he’s siding with the Texans.
For Houston, this really is the swing game. A win would put the Texans right back in the playoff conversation.
A loss would leave them needing to win at least nine of their final 11 games to feel good about their chances. That’s why Sunday feels like a turning point, and why the points are appealing with Houston in London.
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Texans Move Raises Early Questions About Houstons Linebacker Plans
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For a defense that has been sorting through its linebacker depth, the move is a reminder that draft status alone does not buy much time. Fisher is now subject to waivers, and his exit leaves Houston with another question to answer as it continues shaping the middle of its defense heading into the next stretch of roster moves. [Read more 🡒]
Texans Head To London With A Roster Problem They Cant Ignore
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Woody Marks is expected to shoulder a bigger load in the backfield with Montgomery unavailable, while the secondary could feel the strain if Pitre cannot go. There is some relief for Houston, though, with Azeez Al-Shaair and Trent Brown both back to full participation, giving the Texans a little help as they try to sort through a week that has put their depth to the test. [Read more 🡒]
Texans Get A Key Defensive Boost Ahead Of Jaguars Game
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Houston also elevated Bryce Hall and Jawhar Jordan from the practice squad for the matchup, while moving on from seventh-round rookie Fisher and undrafted defensive back Collin Wright from the 53-man roster. The shuffle adds some short-term flexibility for the Texans, but the attention is on how quickly TooToo can settle back in after his time away. [Read more 🡒]