Texans Heating Up, But AFC Playoff Race Leaves No Room for Error
The Houston Texans are one of the hottest teams in football right now, riding a four-game winning streak and looking more and more like a team that belongs in the postseason. But in a loaded AFC, momentum alone isn’t enough. Even after stacking wins, Houston still finds itself on the outside looking in - for now.
Here’s the good news: while their overall playoff odds have only ticked up slightly, their chances of winning the AFC South have never looked better. That’s thanks in part to a pivotal Week 14 matchup between division co-leaders Indianapolis and Jacksonville. One of those teams is going to take a step back, and the Texans are in striking distance.
AFC Playoff Picture: Razor Thin Margins
This past week only made the AFC playoff race even tighter. Seven of the top ten teams in the hunt came away with wins, making every game from here on out feel like a playoff game in itself.
Realistically, Houston can’t afford more than one loss the rest of the way if they want to keep their postseason hopes alive. That puts extra pressure on their upcoming Sunday Night Football clash with the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs, who just dropped a game to the Cowboys, saw their own playoff odds take a 20% hit. Meanwhile, the Jaguars got a 9% boost after steamrolling the Titans. That kind of volatility shows just how quickly things can swing in this race.
Texans Still Control Their Destiny
Despite the uphill climb, Houston isn’t out of the picture. In fact, they’re very much in control of their own fate.
With a 7-5 record, they’re just one game behind both the Colts and Jaguars in the AFC South. And with one more head-to-head against Indianapolis on the schedule, the Texans have a real shot to claim the tiebreaker and make a run at the division crown.
Here’s where things stand heading into Week 14:
AFC Playoff Standings Snapshot
| Seed | Team | Record | Week 14 Opponent | Playoff Odds |
|---|
| 1 | Patriots (AFC East leader) | 11-2 | BYE | 99% | | 2 | Broncos (AFC West leader) | 10-2 | at Raiders | 99% |
| 3 | Jaguars (AFC South leader) | 8-4 | vs Colts | 83% | | 4 | Ravens (AFC North leader) | 6-6 | vs Steelers | 64% |
| 5 | Bills (Wild Card) | 8-4 | vs Bengals | 91% | | 6 | Colts (Wild Card) | 8-4 | at Jaguars | 68% |
| 7 | Chargers (Wild Card) | 8-4 | vs Eagles (MNF) | 61% | | - | Texans (In the Hunt) | 7-5 | at Chiefs (SNF) | 60% |
| - | Steelers (In the Hunt) | 6-6 | at Ravens | 30% | | - | Chiefs (In the Hunt) | 6-6 | vs Texans (SNF) | 37% |
AFC South Breakdown
| Team | Record | Playoff Odds | Division Title Odds | First-Round Bye |
|---|
| Jaguars | 8-4 | 83% | 42% | 3% | | Colts | 8-4 | 68% | 34% | 1% |
| Texans | 7-5 | 60% | 24% | 0% | | Titans | 1-11 | Eliminated | 0% | 0% |
It’s worth noting that Houston’s playoff odds only rose by 7% this week, from 53% to 60%. That might seem underwhelming, especially considering they’ve won four straight and hold a 4-1 record in the division. But with so many teams in the mix, every percentage point is hard-earned.
Texans at Chiefs: Massive Playoff Stakes
This week’s primetime matchup in Kansas City is about as high-stakes as it gets. A win by Houston would deal a serious blow to the Chiefs’ playoff hopes - and give the Texans a massive boost in their own race.
According to projections, a win would push Houston’s playoff odds from 60% to 85%. A loss?
That drops them to 46%.
The Chiefs are reeling, and the Texans have a chance to capitalize. But it won’t be easy - not at Arrowhead, not under the lights, and not against a team that still has Mahomes, Kelce, and a championship pedigree. If Houston wants to prove it belongs in the postseason, this is the moment.
Week 14 Games That Matter for Houston
Let’s take a look at three other games Texans fans should be paying close attention to this weekend:
Steelers at Ravens (Sunday, 1:00 PM ET)
This one doesn’t directly impact Houston’s playoff odds, but let’s be honest - no one’s eager to see Lamar Jackson in January.
The Steelers are struggling to move the ball through the air, and the Ravens are coming off a convincing win over the Bengals. A Baltimore win here would help keep Pittsburgh at bay in the Wild Card race.
Colts at Jaguars (Sunday, 1:00 PM ET)
This is the big one in the AFC South.
Texans fans should be pulling for the Colts in this one. Why?
Because Houston still has a game left against Indy, which means they can control the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Jags, on the other hand, have already split with the Texans.
Whoever wins this game gets sole possession of the division lead - and puts Houston in a better position to chase them down.
Eagles at Chargers (Monday, 8:15 PM ET)
The Chargers have a brutal closing stretch - Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, Broncos - and a loss here could start the slide.
If Philly takes care of business, it would bump Houston’s playoff odds by about 2%. It’s a small margin, but in a race this tight, every bit counts.
Plus, the Texans face the Chargers in four weeks, so knocking them down a peg now could pay off later.
What’s Ahead for Houston
The Texans' final stretch is manageable, but not without its pitfalls. After the Chiefs, they face the Cardinals and Raiders - two teams with a combined five wins - before closing out with the Chargers and Colts. That finale in Indy could end up being a de facto playoff game.
- Week 14: at Chiefs (6-6) - Sunday Night Football spotlight
- Week 15: vs Cardinals (3-9)
- Week 16: vs Raiders (2-10)
- Week 17: at Chargers (8-4)
- Week 18: vs Colts (8-4)
If Houston can take care of business against the teams they’re supposed to beat - and steal one or two from the contenders - they’ll be right in the thick of the postseason mix. They’ve already shown they can win tough games. Now it’s about doing it when it matters most.
The margin for error is razor thin. But the opportunity? It’s right there for the taking.