Should the Texans Trade Back in the First Round? Let’s Break It Down
With the 2025 NFL season in the books, it’s officially draft season - and the Houston Texans are sitting in a fascinating spot. Holding the 28th overall pick, they’re in prime position to either add a key contributor or leverage that selection for additional assets. And in a draft class that’s being described more for its depth than its star power, trading back might be more than just a clever idea - it might be the smart play.
One scenario that’s gaining traction involves the Texans striking a deal with the New York Jets. The proposed trade would send pick No. 28 to New York in exchange for No. 33, a fourth-rounder this year, and another fourth-rounder in 2027. In this setup, the Jets would be moving up to grab Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson - currently viewed as the consensus QB2 in this class.
Now, let’s be clear: this kind of move isn’t just about pick-for-pick value. It’s about understanding the quarterback tax - the premium teams are willing to pay when they think they’ve found their guy under center. If the Jets are sold on Simpson as their future franchise quarterback, it’s not unreasonable to think they might be willing to give up even more to leapfrog a team like the Rams, who could also be eyeing a QB as the successor to Matthew Stafford.
For the Texans, this could be a golden opportunity to capitalize on that urgency.
Why Trading Back Makes Sense
This year’s draft class might not have the elite, can’t-miss prospects at the top, but what it does have is a deep pool of talent in the middle rounds. That’s where this proposed trade starts to make a lot of sense for Houston.
Those extra fourth-round picks? They’re not just throw-ins - they’re potential starters.
This is the kind of draft where you can find a solid wide receiver, a disruptive defensive lineman, or a developmental offensive tackle in the third or fourth round. The Texans have done a solid job building out their young core, and adding more lottery tickets in a deep draft could accelerate that process.
Plus, moving from pick 28 to 33 doesn’t take them out of the running for high-upside talent. Offensive line prospects like Max Iheanachor, Emmanuel Pregnon, Vega Ioane, Blake Miller, and Monroe Freeling could very well still be on the board at 33. These are the types of players who might not be plug-and-play stars on Day 1, but with the right coaching and development, could become long-term anchors on the line.
The Fifth-Year Option Factor
There’s one wrinkle worth mentioning: by trading out of the first round, the Texans would lose the fifth-year option that comes with a first-round contract. That means whoever they take at 33 would be on a standard four-year rookie deal, and the team would have to make a decision - and potentially pay up - a year earlier.
Is that a deal-breaker? Not necessarily.
It’s a factor to consider, especially if they’re targeting a position like offensive tackle or edge rusher, where long-term cost control is valuable. But for a team looking to build depth and flexibility, the extra picks might outweigh the contract structure.
Final Thoughts
The Texans are in a good spot - and that’s a credit to how they’ve built their roster over the past couple of years. They don’t have to trade back. If they fall in love with a player at 28, especially in the trenches, they can stay put and make a strong pick.
But if a team like the Jets comes calling, desperate to move up for a quarterback, Houston would be wise to listen. In a draft where quantity might be just as valuable as quality, flipping No. 28 for multiple picks could be a savvy move that sets them up for sustained success.
Bottom line: the Texans have options. And that’s exactly where you want to be heading into draft night.