With five games left in the regular season, the AFC South is officially a three-team sprint to the finish. The Jaguars, Colts, and Texans are all within a game of each other, and Sunday’s 20-16 win by Houston over Indianapolis only tightened the screws.
Jacksonville sits atop the division at 8-4, tied with the Colts but holding the edge in tiebreakers - for now. Houston, after an 0-3 start that had many writing them off, is right back in the mix at 7-5.
This isn’t just a battle for bragging rights. A division title means a home playoff game and a real shot at making noise in January. And with the Jaguars and Colts set to face off this Sunday in Jacksonville, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
Let’s break down the path forward for each contender - the strengths they can lean on, and the vulnerabilities that could trip them up.
Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)
Remaining schedule includes: Colts (twice), Titans, Jets
Why they can win it: Jacksonville’s defense has been the steadying force this season, and it’s about to become even more of a factor.
Linebacker Devin Lloyd is back healthy and playing like the difference-maker this unit needs. He leads the team with six interceptions, and his presence in the middle gives the Jaguars a defensive edge heading into their two matchups with Indianapolis.
The schedule also plays into Jacksonville’s hands. In addition to the two showdowns with the Colts, they get the Titans and Jets - two teams that have struggled to find consistency all season. If the Jags handle business in those games, they’ll be in prime position to control their own destiny.
What could hold them back: Consistency has been the Achilles’ heel for Jacksonville.
This is a team that beat the 49ers and Chiefs in back-to-back weeks - both on the road - and then turned around and laid eggs against the Seahawks and Rams. That kind of Jekyll-and-Hyde performance makes it tough to trust them down the stretch.
The running game, which was a strength early in the year, has also cooled off. Without that balance, the offense can become too reliant on the passing game - and that’s a tough way to win close, physical December football.
Houston Texans (7-5)
Remaining schedule includes: Colts, Raiders, Chargers, Cardinals
Why they can win it: Defense, defense, defense.
Houston’s unit has been one of the most disruptive in the league this season, and it’s the reason they’ve clawed back into contention after that 0-3 start. They’re strong at every level, and they’ve shown they can force turnovers and pressure quarterbacks - the kind of traits that travel well in the winter months.
Looking at the schedule, there’s reason for optimism. The Texans face the Colts one more time, along with three teams - the Raiders, Chargers, and Cardinals - who’ve all had their struggles. If Houston’s defense continues to show up, they’ll be in every one of those games.
What could hold them back: The offense remains a major question mark.
It’s been a tough watch for most of the year, and the absence of Joe Mixon has left a noticeable void in the backfield. The run game just hasn’t been there, and a lot of that falls on an offensive line that’s struggled to find cohesion and consistency.
Without a reliable ground game, the Texans are often forced into long third downs and predictable passing situations - a formula that doesn’t bode well in tight divisional battles. The defense can only carry them so far if the offense can’t find a rhythm.
Indianapolis Colts (8-4)
Remaining schedule includes: Jaguars (twice), Seahawks, 49ers
Why they can win it: Familiarity is a big plus here.
The Colts get two cracks at the Jaguars and one more against the Texans - all teams they know well and have game-planned for extensively. If they can split or sweep those matchups, they’ll be right in the thick of it.
The potential return of DeForest Buckner could be a game-changer. He’s the anchor of the defensive front, a force against the run and a disruptor in the pass rush. Getting him back would give the Colts a much-needed boost on defense, especially with some tough matchups ahead.
What could hold them back: The schedule is brutal.
In addition to the divisional games, the Colts still have to face the Seahawks and 49ers - two teams likely battling for playoff spots and playing with urgency. Those won’t be easy outs.
There’s also the health of Daniel Jones to consider. The quarterback’s leg injury has limited his mobility and taken away some of the offensive versatility that made the Colts dangerous earlier in the year. If he can’t move the way he used to, it changes the way defenses approach this team - and not in a good way.
The Final Stretch
Three teams.
Five games. One division crown.
The AFC South has morphed into one of the most compelling races in football, and every week from here on out is going to feel like a playoff game. Jacksonville has the edge - for now - but the Colts and Texans are breathing down their necks, and all three have the tools to make a run.
Who wins it? That’ll be decided on the field. And if the first 13 weeks are any indication, we’re in for a wild ride to the finish.