When the Texans and Patriots square off, forget the flashy headlines-this one’s going to be won on third down. That’s where both teams have carved out their identity this season, and where this game could tilt in either direction.
Let’s start with the Texans’ defense, which has quietly become one of the league’s best at getting off the field. They’ve allowed opponents to convert just 34.9% of their third downs-good for fifth in the NFL.
That’s no accident. This unit is anchored by two relentless edge rushers in Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, who’ve combined for a staggering 27 sacks.
Add in All-Pro corner Derek Stingley Jr., and you’ve got a defense that can pressure the quarterback and shut down top receivers. When they get you into third-and-long, it’s hunting season.
But while the defense has been elite, the offense has been more of a mixed bag-especially on third down. Houston’s offense converted just 39% of their third downs this season, ranking 18th in the league. That’s below average, and it’s not trending in the right direction heading into this matchup.
The absence of Nico Collins, their top receiver and a 1,000-yard weapon, won’t help. He’s out in concussion protocol, which not only robs quarterback C.J.
Stroud of his most reliable target, but also takes away what would’ve been a marquee showdown between Collins and Patriots standout corner Christian Gonzalez. With Collins sidelined, the Texans will need to find other ways to stay ahead of the chains-and that’s been a struggle all year.
Houston’s offense averaged 7.3 yards to go on third down this season. That’s a tough ask, especially without your top playmaker.
It speaks to a broader issue: they haven’t consistently moved the ball on first and second down. That said, there have been flashes.
In one of their more chaotic games-featuring three turnovers from Stroud-they still managed to convert 10 of 15 third downs. That kind of efficiency will be crucial if they want to keep pace with New England.
Defensively, the Texans’ game plan is pretty straightforward: get a lead, force the Patriots into third-and-long, and let Anderson Jr. and Hunter pin their ears back. That’s the formula. And it’s a good one-especially against a rookie quarterback, even if that rookie is Drake Maye, an MVP finalist.
Maye has been everything New England hoped for and then some. He completed 72% of his passes this season and led the Patriots to a top-six finish in third-down conversions at just under 43%. That’s elite company, and it’s a big reason why this offense has been humming down the stretch.
The Patriots’ defense isn’t quite as stingy as Houston’s, but they’ve been solid-ranking 10th in third-down defense. That’s more than enough to keep them competitive, especially with the offense clicking the way it is.
And speaking of that offense, don’t sleep on the run game. Rhamondre Stevenson and rookie TreVeyon Henderson have been a dynamic duo, combining for 1,500 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns.
Henderson, in particular, has been explosive-averaging over five yards per carry. As a team, the Patriots finished sixth in rushing, averaging just under 130 yards per game.
That balance has made them tough to stop, and it’ll be a major test for the Texans’ front seven.
Then there’s the matchup on the outside. With Collins out, the Texans don’t have a clear answer to match up with Stefon Diggs, who just wrapped up a stellar first season in Foxborough.
That puts a lot on Stingley Jr.’s plate. He’s up to the challenge, but he’ll need to be at his best to contain Diggs and give the Texans’ pass rush time to get home.
Bottom line: this game is going to be decided on third down. If the Texans can stay efficient on offense and force Maye into obvious passing situations, their defense has the firepower to take over. But if the Patriots control the tempo, convert at their usual clip, and keep their offense balanced, they’ll be tough to beat.
It’s strength vs. strength, and whoever wins on third down is likely walking away with the W.