NFL Draft Watch: Raiders Lead Race for No. 1 Pick, But Giants Are Closing Fast
With Week 15 in the books, the race for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft is heating up-and it's shaping up to be a wild finish. Right now, it’s the Las Vegas Raiders who sit in pole position, but the New York Giants made a serious move this week, jumping nearly 10 percentage points in projected odds. According to a simulator model, the Giants now have an 18 percent shot at the top pick, tying them for the second-best odds in the league.
Still, that doesn’t mean they’re currently slotted at No. 2.
The model actually places the Giants fourth in the projected draft order. Why?
Because despite their 2-12 record, the simulator sees a few winnable games left on their schedule. And that’s where things start to get really interesting.
Let’s break down where things stand for the teams in the thick of the No. 1 pick race-and how Week 15 reshaped the outlook heading into the final stretch.
Las Vegas Raiders (2-12): Still in the Driver’s Seat-for Now
The Raiders were blanked by the Eagles in Week 15, and that loss keeps them firmly in the lead for the top pick. Their offense, led by Kenny Pickett, couldn’t get anything going. And with Houston up next, another loss feels likely.
But the real pivot point comes in Week 17, when they face the Giants-a head-to-head matchup that could swing the entire top of the draft. That game is shaping up to be one of the most consequential of the season for draft positioning.
If the Raiders lose out, including to the Giants, they’re in the clear for the No. 1 pick. But if they beat New York, the door swings wide open for someone else to sneak in.
Their Week 18 opponent? The Kansas City Chiefs, who were eliminated from playoff contention and lost Patrick Mahomes to a torn ACL. If Kansas City rests its starters, the Raiders could find themselves accidentally playing their way out of the top spot.
Right now, the Raiders hold the edge over the Titans and Giants thanks to a weaker strength of schedule. But this is far from locked in. The Raiders control their own destiny-lose out, and they’re picking first.
Tennessee Titans (2-12): That Win Might Cost Them
Tennessee’s Week 14 win over the Browns may have felt good in the moment, but it could prove costly when the draft rolls around. That victory means they’ll need help to land the top pick for a second straight year.
Their clearest path? Lose out and hope the Raiders and Giants each pick up a win.
If the Titans drop their final three games and the Giants also lose out, Tennessee has about a 28 percent shot at the No. 1 pick. But if the Raiders and Titans both lose out, and the Giants get to three wins, Tennessee’s odds plummet to under 1 percent.
Their remaining schedule isn’t doing them any favors: Kansas City, New Orleans, and Jacksonville. If they go winless from here, they’ll be in the mix-but they’ll need some chaos elsewhere.
New York Jets (3-11): Still a Long Shot, But Not Out of It
The Jets were outclassed by the Jaguars in Week 15, and while they’re technically still alive in the No. 1 pick race, the odds are steep. With three wins already, they’re in that murky middle ground-close enough to dream, but far enough that everything has to break their way.
Their best shot at a win comes in Week 16 against the Saints. If they lose that one, they’ll likely finish no better than 3-14, and depending on what happens with the Giants-Raiders matchup, that could be enough to sneak into the top three.
The simulator gives the Jets just an 11 percent chance at the top pick, but they’re hovering around 19 percent and 18 percent for picks No. 2 and No. 3, respectively. So while the No. 1 pick is probably out of reach, a top-three selection is very much in play.
New York Giants (2-12): Schedule Could Push Them to the Top
Despite sitting at 2-12, the Giants are currently behind the Raiders in the projected order. Why?
Their remaining schedule is among the easiest in the league. That’s not ideal if you're trying to secure the top pick.
They’ll face the Vikings in Week 16, then the Raiders in Week 17, and finish up with the Cowboys. That middle game against Las Vegas is the big one. If the Giants lose out-including that Raiders game-their odds of picking first skyrocket to 89 percent.
But if they beat the Raiders, they could fall out of the top spot entirely. The Titans could still leapfrog them depending on strength of schedule, which is the tiebreaker in play here. Right now, the Giants have the edge there, but that could shift depending on how the final games shake out.
Bottom line: the Giants are in striking distance, but the margin for error is razor-thin.
Cleveland Browns (3-11): Still Alive, But Hanging by a Thread
The Browns kept their faint hopes alive with a rough showing against the Bears, but their path to the No. 1 pick is narrow. Even if they lose out, their odds top out at about 33 percent-assuming everything else breaks their way.
They’ll need the loser of the Giants-Raiders game to stay at two wins, and they’ll also need the Titans to lose out. That’s a lot to ask, and even then, strength of schedule could bite them. The Browns are in the mix, but they’re on the outside looking in.
Arizona Cardinals (3-11): Technically in the Race, But Not Really
The Cardinals dropped their Week 15 matchup against the Texans, keeping them mathematically alive in the race for the top pick. But the odds aren’t in their favor.
Even if Arizona loses out, their chances only climb to about 6 percent. The issue?
Their strength of schedule is working against them. With three NFC West teams sitting at 10 or more wins, the Cardinals are unlikely to win any tiebreakers.
So while they’re still part of the conversation, the path to No. 1 is almost entirely blocked.
Final Thoughts: It’s a Three-Team Sprint to the Finish
With just three weeks left in the regular season, the battle for the No. 1 pick is shaping up to be a three-way race between the Raiders, Giants, and Titans. The Week 17 showdown between Las Vegas and New York could be the defining moment in this draft race. And for teams like the Jets, Browns, and Cardinals, it’s all about how the dominoes fall.
Whether it’s for a franchise quarterback, a generational pass rusher, or a trade chip that resets a rebuild, that top pick carries weight. And as we’ve seen before, a single win-or loss-can change everything.