AFC South Showdown: Colts, Texans, and Jaguars Locked in a December Dogfight
What once looked like a one-horse race in the AFC South has turned into a full-blown three-team sprint to the finish. The Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Houston Texans are now separated by just a single game, with a handful of divisional matchups still on the calendar. And with each squad showing flashes of both brilliance and vulnerability, the division crown is truly up for grabs.
Let’s break down where each team stands heading into the final month-and why this race might come down to the wire.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4): A Division Leader with a Fragile Foundation
Yes, the Jaguars are sitting atop the division. But dig a little deeper, and the cracks are hard to ignore.
Trevor Lawrence has struggled to protect the football, ranking third in the NFL in interceptions. His passer rating sits at 81.3-only ahead of Joe Flacco and Cam Ward among full-time starters-which speaks volumes about how inconsistent the passing game has been.
And it’s not just on him. Receivers Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter have battled injuries and underwhelming production, leaving the offense one-dimensional at times.
The run game has done its part, keeping the offense afloat, but the passing attack simply hasn’t been able to stretch the field or keep pace in high-scoring affairs. That’s a problem when you’re trying to contend in a conference loaded with firepower.
Defensively, Jacksonville has been stout against the run and opportunistic in creating turnovers. But when it comes to defending the pass, they’ve been near the bottom of the league. That imbalance puts a lot of pressure on the defense to force mistakes, especially in games where the offense can’t get rolling.
Bottom line: the Jaguars are a solid team, but their margin for error is razor thin. Unless they can find more consistency through the air, they may struggle to hold off their surging rivals.
2. Indianapolis Colts (8-4): High Ceiling, But a Quarterback Question
The Colts have one of the most talented offensive rosters in the league. But talent only takes you so far-execution is what wins games in December.
After a red-hot start that had him in the MVP conversation, Daniel Jones has hit a wall. Over the last four games, he’s turned the ball over seven times and completed just 56% of his passes. That drop-off has come at the worst possible time, with the Colts dropping back-to-back games to the Chiefs and Texans.
Jones’ struggles have been particularly glaring in crunch time. Against Kansas City, the Colts went three-and-out on their final four possessions.
Against Houston, a potential game-winning drive fizzled out with three straight incompletions. That’s not the kind of late-game execution you want from your starting quarterback in a playoff push.
The ripple effect has hit Jonathan Taylor, too. With defenses stacking the box, Taylor’s production has dipped to just 62 rushing yards per game over the last three losses-down from his season average of 92.3. That’s a tough pill to swallow for a team that relies heavily on its ground game to set the tone.
Defensively, the Colts are a classic bend-but-don’t-break unit-ninth in points allowed, but 21st in total yards. That formula works when the offense is humming, but when the passing game stalls, the defense has to shoulder too much of the load.
The Colts still have the talent to win the division, but with all five remaining games coming against teams with winning records, they’ll need Jones to rediscover his early-season form-and fast.
1. Houston Texans (7-5): Defense Rules the Day in H-Town
Don’t let the record fool you-the Texans are playing some of the best football in the AFC right now.
After a 3-5 start that had them buried in the standings, Houston has rattled off four straight wins, including a stunning 19-point fourth-quarter comeback against Jacksonville in Week 10. That run has vaulted them right back into the thick of the division race-and they might just be the most complete team of the bunch.
It all starts with the defense. The Texans lead the league in both points and yards allowed, and their recent domination of Josh Allen and the Bills was a statement. This isn’t just a group that feasts on bad offenses-they can go toe-to-toe with the best and come out on top.
Offensively, things are starting to click. The return of C.J.
Stroud from a concussion gives the Texans a steady hand under center, and Davis Mills held things down admirably in his absence. Jayden Higgins has emerged as a legitimate second option behind Nico Collins, giving the passing game more balance and versatility.
The ground game is still a work in progress-bottom 10 in both yards and yards per carry-but with the defense playing lights-out, Houston hasn’t needed to win shootouts. And if Stroud can continue to protect the football and distribute efficiently, the Texans have a real shot to run the table.
The Final Stretch
This division is far from settled. All three teams have shown they can beat quality opponents-and all three have flaws that could derail their playoff hopes. With intra-division matchups still looming and December football turning up the pressure, expect more twists and turns before the AFC South crown is claimed.
The Jaguars are holding the top spot for now, but the Texans are surging, and the Colts are dangerous if they can clean up the turnovers. Buckle up-it’s going to be a wild finish.