The Indianapolis Colts are still technically alive in the AFC playoff race - but barely. After a brutal five-game skid that’s turned a 7-1 dream season into an 8-7 scramble, the Colts find themselves needing more than just a win this Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
They need help. A lot of it.
And while head coach Shane Steichen isn’t spending team meetings walking through playoff permutations, he knows the players are aware of what’s at stake.
“You’re definitely aware of it,” Steichen said Tuesday. “We know that we got a job to do, and we got to go handle our business regardless of how the scenarios play out come Sunday.”
Let’s take a look at that business - and just how complicated it’s become.
A Historic Collapse in the Making?
Monday night’s 48-27 loss to the San Francisco 49ers wasn’t just another L. It was a gut-punch. The Colts wasted a vintage performance from Philip Rivers and fell for the fifth straight time, dropping them from playoff contender to the edge of elimination.
It’s rare air - and not the good kind. Since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, only five teams have started 7-1 and still missed the playoffs:
- 2012 Chicago Bears
- 1996 Washington Football Team
- 1988 New Orleans Saints
- 1987 San Diego Chargers
- 1975 Miami Dolphins
None of those teams rebounded to make the postseason the following year, either. That’s the kind of company Indianapolis is now keeping.
The Path Forward (And It’s a Maze)
So, how do the Colts avoid being the sixth team on that list?
Step one is simple: win out. That means beating the Jaguars this weekend and then taking care of business in Week 18 against the Houston Texans. But even that won’t be enough unless the Texans lose to the 11-4 Chargers on Saturday.
If that happens - and only if that happens - things get interesting.
Both the Colts and Texans would finish 10-7, and that’s when the tiebreakers kick in. Specifically, the “strength of victory” tiebreaker, which looks at the combined winning percentage of the teams each club has beaten.
Right now, the Colts are behind. Their strength of victory sits at .383, while the Texans are at .433. To flip that, Indianapolis needs two things: the teams they’ve beaten to win, and the teams Houston has beaten to lose.
Rooting Guide: Who Colts Fans Should Be Cheering For
If you’re a Colts fan, your Sunday (and Monday) viewing schedule just got a lot more strategic. Here’s who you’ll want to root for to boost Indy’s strength of victory:
- Dolphins over Buccaneers (Sunday)
- Broncos over Chiefs (Sunday)
- Falcons over Rams (Monday night)
And to drag Houston’s strength of victory down, you’ll want:
- Broncos over Chiefs (Thursday)
- Packers over Ravens (Saturday)
- Eagles over Bills (Sunday)
- Bears over 49ers (Sunday night)
Yes, the Broncos are pulling double duty in this scenario - one of those rare times Colts fans will be all-in on Denver.
If all those dominoes fall, Week 18 becomes a winner-take-all showdown between the Colts and Texans. A de facto playoff game with everything on the line.
The Nightmare Scenario
But let’s be real - even if the Colts beat the Jaguars and the Texans fall to the Chargers, they’re still not guaranteed a shot in Week 18. There’s a worst-case scenario lurking, one where the Texans still edge out the Colts in strength of victory even if both teams finish 10-7.
Here’s what that looks like:
- Ravens win
- Bills win
- Chiefs win
- 49ers win
- Falcons lose
- Dolphins lose
If those results hit, Houston could still clinch the final playoff spot - and the Colts would be left on the outside looking in, despite doing everything they could down the stretch.
Still Fighting
It’s a long shot, no question. But this team isn’t waving the white flag.
Not with two games left and a sliver of hope still on the table. And if you ask Philip Rivers, he’s been here before.
“I’ve been a part of less percentage chances of getting in and got in before,” Rivers said, reflecting on his days with the Chargers. “So, you certainly won’t hear me losing hope here as we prepare next week.”
The odds may be stacked against them, but the Colts still have a pulse. And in December, that’s sometimes all you need.