AFC South QB Race Heating Up: Can C.J. Stroud Hold His Ground in a Rising Division?
When C.J. Stroud burst onto the scene in 2023, he didn’t just meet expectations-he rocketed past them.
The Houston Texans had found their franchise quarterback, and the AFC South had a new face of the future. Fast forward to 2026, and the landscape has shifted.
Stroud's spot atop the divisional quarterback hierarchy isn’t as rock-solid as it once seemed.
In early January, ESPN Houston analyst Lance Zierlein stirred the pot with a bold take: by 2026, Stroud could be the worst quarterback in the AFC South. At first glance, that sounds like a hot take designed to rile up fans. But dig a little deeper, and there’s a fair bit of context worth unpacking.
A Rising Tide in the AFC South
Zierlein’s point wasn’t that Stroud has regressed into mediocrity-it was that the rest of the division is rising fast. And he’s not wrong. Every quarterback in the AFC South showed flashes, and in some cases, full-on brilliance in 2025.
Let’s start with Daniel Jones, who found new life under Colts head coach Shane Steichen. Jones started the season red-hot, leading Indianapolis to a 7-1 record before a brutal combination of a broken fibula and torn Achilles ended his campaign prematurely.
But before the injury bug bit, Jones was playing clean, efficient football-leading the division in completion percentage (68%), yards per game (238.5), and passer rating (100.2). If he returns healthy, Indy’s offense could be a real problem.
Then there’s Cam Ward, the rookie who walked into a tough situation in Tennessee. The Titans were one of the five worst teams in the league, finishing 3-14, but Ward still managed to show promise.
He threw for over 3,100 yards and 15 touchdowns while keeping the turnovers in check-just seven picks on the year, the lowest in the division. Not bad for a first-year QB in a rebuilding situation.
Trevor Lawrence, meanwhile, had the kind of year that reminds everyone why he was once considered a generational prospect. He topped 4,000 passing yards, tossed 29 touchdowns, added nine more on the ground, and led Jacksonville to a 14-2 record-their first 13+ win season since 1999.
Under new head coach Liam Coen, Lawrence looked unlocked. Confident, decisive, and dangerous.
He’s not just living up to the hype-he’s owning it.
Stroud’s Season: Solid, But Not Spectacular
That brings us back to C.J. Stroud, who didn’t have a bad 2025 by any stretch.
He threw for over 3,000 yards, 19 touchdowns, and trimmed his interceptions down to eight-an improvement from his rookie season. He also helped guide Houston to a third straight double-digit win season, a franchise first.
That’s not nothing.
But Stroud missed three games due to a concussion-his second multi-game absence in three years-and his playoff performance left a sour taste. Despite advancing one round further than Lawrence in the postseason, Stroud’s two-game playoff stretch was rough.
Historically rough. It’s the kind of performance that lingers into the offseason and raises questions, fair or not.
The Most Accomplished, Yet the Most to Prove?
Here’s the twist: Stroud enters 2026 as the most accomplished quarterback in the division. Three straight playoff appearances.
A 3-0 record in Wild Card games. A steady presence in a franchise that’s finally found some consistency.
But somehow, he also enters 2026 with the most to prove.
That’s the paradox of quarterbacking in the NFL. Past success doesn’t buy you much time when the rest of the division is evolving.
Jones is expected to come back healthy and firing. Ward is no longer a wide-eyed rookie.
And Lawrence? He might already be the best quarterback in the AFC not named Mahomes.
So where does that leave Stroud?
He’s still the guy in Houston. Still the leader of a team that’s been on the upswing since he arrived.
But in a division where every quarterback is trending up, Stroud can’t afford to plateau. Not now.
Not with the AFC South potentially becoming one of the most competitive quarterback divisions in the league.
The margin for error is thin. The expectations are high.
And the spotlight? It’s not going anywhere.
Stroud’s got the resume. Now he needs the encore.