The AFC playoff picture looks a whole lot different this year-and not just because of who's in, but who's out. For the last few seasons, the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, and Baltimore Ravens have been the powerhouses of the conference, the teams you could count on to be in the thick of things come January. But fast forward to this season, and the landscape has shifted dramatically.
The Chiefs? Already eliminated.
The Ravens? Still in the hunt, but their playoff spot is anything but a lock.
That leaves the Bills as the lone holdover from the old guard, and even they aren’t exactly sitting comfortably. The AFC has been flipped on its head, and with three weeks left in the regular season, Buffalo is staring down a potential first-round matchup that could be more dangerous than it looks on paper.
Let’s talk about the Houston Texans.
The Texans have emerged as one of the AFC’s most intriguing teams this season. They’re young, aggressive, and fast on defense, and they already showed they can give the Bills serious problems.
When the two teams met earlier this year, Houston’s defense turned the heat all the way up. Josh Allen was under siege from the opening snap, getting sacked eight times and throwing two picks.
Buffalo’s offense never found a rhythm and managed just 19 points. It was a rough day at the office for Allen-and a blueprint for how to beat this Bills team.
What makes that game even more concerning for Buffalo? Houston wasn’t even at full strength.
C.J. Stroud didn’t play.
Davis Mills got the start and, to his credit, held his own. But let’s be real-Stroud brings a whole different level of explosiveness and poise to the Texans’ offense.
If these two teams meet again in the playoffs with Stroud under center, it’s a different ballgame entirely.
And there’s a real chance that happens.
Right now, the Bills and Texans sit in the AFC’s sixth and seventh seeds, respectively. That means they wouldn’t face each other in the Wild Card round as things currently stand.
But that could change quickly. If either team wins its division-and that’s very much on the table-they’d jump into the top four seeds and open the door for a potential first-round clash.
Of the two, Houston has the clearer path to a division crown. The Texans have a favorable schedule down the stretch, with games against the Raiders, Chargers, and Colts.
The Jaguars, who currently lead the AFC South, face a slightly tougher trio in the Broncos, Colts, and Titans. If Houston can handle business, they could leapfrog Jacksonville and take the division.
The Bills, on the other hand, would need a miracle to win the AFC East. Even though they split the season series with the Patriots, New England holds the tiebreaker edge and a lead that looks just out of reach with only a few games to go.
According to current playoff projections, the Texans are the Bills’ second-most likely Wild Card opponent, with a 15% chance of facing off in the opening round. That number might not jump off the page, but it’s enough to keep Buffalo fans up at night.
Because while the Bills can go toe-to-toe with just about anyone when their offense is humming, they’ve struggled against teams that can disrupt Allen’s timing and force mistakes. And that’s exactly what the Texans did-and could do again.
Buffalo’s playoff spot is all but secure. What’s left to play for is positioning-and avoiding matchups that don’t favor them. The next three weeks will go a long way in determining whether the Bills can set themselves up for a deep postseason run or whether they’ll have to face their biggest nightmare early: a rematch with a Texans team that already knows how to make life miserable for Josh Allen.