The Houston Rockets are sitting in a solid spot right now - fifth in the Western Conference, nine games over .500, and boasting top-five rankings in both offensive and defensive rating. That’s not just respectable; that’s the kind of statistical balance that usually signals a team ready to make real noise in the postseason. But for anyone watching closely, there’s a lingering question that’s hard to ignore: Why can’t this team seem to beat the best?
Let’s start with the good. Alperen Sengun is having a breakout season that’s putting him squarely in the All-Star conversation.
Kevin Durant, even in the later stages of his career, continues to deliver big-time performances. And then there’s Reed Sheppard - the rookie guard who’s quickly becoming a fan favorite thanks to his poise, shooting, and feel for the game.
On paper, this is a team with star power, depth, and a head coach in Ime Udoka who knows what it takes to win.
But here’s the rub: the Rockets have yet to notch a win against a team with a .600 winning percentage. They’re 0-5 in those games.
That’s not just a small sample size - it’s a trend. And it’s one that could come back to bite them in a loaded Western Conference where the margin between home-court advantage and the play-in tournament can be razor-thin.
To be clear, the Rockets are taking care of business against teams they should beat. They’re 10-2 against sub-.500 teams and a perfect 6-0 against teams hovering between .500 and .600.
That’s the mark of a disciplined, well-coached squad. But when the lights are brightest and the opponent is elite, Houston has come up short.
Let’s talk about those five losses. They came against the Thunder, Pistons, Spurs, and Nuggets (twice).
None of those games were blowouts. In fact, the largest margin was just 11 points - against San Antonio.
So it’s not about talent disparity. The Rockets are right there, toe-to-toe with the league’s best.
But they’re not finishing.
Late-game execution has been the Achilles heel. We’ve seen careless turnovers, untimely fouls, missed free throws, and, at times, a lack of urgency on the boards.
In the NBA Cup matchups against San Antonio and Denver, the Rockets were outworked in the fourth quarter - on the glass, no less, which is usually their strength. Against OKC on opening night, it was missed freebies.
Against Detroit, it was poor spacing and sloppy ball-handling. And in the most recent loss to Denver, even with the officiating leaving a lot to be desired, Houston still had chances to close it out - and didn’t.
A lot of this centers around Sengun. His box scores have been eye-popping - he put up a 33-point triple-double against Denver - but the advanced numbers tell a different story.
He finished that game with a team-worst minus-6. And those four fourth-quarter fouls?
They weren’t ticky-tack. They were avoidable, lazy fouls that killed momentum.
Kevin Durant, for all his clutch shot-making, hasn’t been immune either. He’s had some costly turnovers and missed free throws in these tight games - the kind of plays that swing outcomes when you’re facing top-tier competition.
The upside? This is all fixable.
These are not structural flaws; they’re growing pains. And with a coach like Udoka at the helm, you can bet these issues are getting addressed in film sessions and practices.
The Rockets don’t need to reinvent themselves - they just need to tighten up when it matters most.
The West is a minefield. When the dust settles, the top six or seven teams could be separated by just a few games.
That means head-to-head matchups - especially against contenders - will carry extra weight. And if Houston wants to be taken seriously as a true threat, they’ll need to start winning some of these games against the league’s upper crust.
The good news is that there’s still time. Chemistry is still developing.
The roster isn’t even fully healthy - Tari Eason and Dorian Finney-Smith haven’t been fully integrated yet. And with the trade deadline still on the horizon, there’s always the possibility of reinforcements.
But make no mistake: this current group has the tools to figure it out. The question is whether they can do it before the standings start to tighten and every possession starts to feel like a playoff possession.
For now, Rockets fans should take a breath. This isn’t panic time - not yet.
But it is a moment of truth. The next few weeks, especially as we get into January and approach the All-Star break, will tell us a lot about who this team really is.
They’re good. Really good.
But to be great? That’s going to take sharper execution, cleaner finishes, and a little more edge when the stakes are highest.
Let’s see if they’ve got it in them.