The Houston Rockets are off to a promising start this season, but there's a key variable in their championship equation that remains unsolved: the absence of Fred VanVleet.
VanVleet, sidelined with an ACL tear, has yet to suit up this year, and while the Rockets have done an admirable job keeping things afloat without their starting point guard, the cracks are beginning to show-especially in crunch time. Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard have stepped into the void, and to their credit, they’ve done more than just survive. But when the game slows down, the pressure ramps up, and every possession matters, the question looms: do the Rockets have enough on-ball creation to close out playoff-caliber games?
On a recent episode of The Bill Simmons Podcast, ESPN’s Zach Lowe put it plainly: “VanVleet in particular, you feel the void of a little extra on-ball juice for them at times.” He pointed to the Rockets’ late-game offense, where they’ve been toggling between Sheppard and Josh Okogie in offense-defense substitutions, trying to patchwork their way through high-leverage moments.
The underlying message? Houston’s still figuring out what it really needs when the game’s on the line.
And that’s the heart of it. The Rockets have the pieces of a contender, but the VanVleet-sized hole in their lineup could be what ultimately defines their ceiling.
Let’s be clear: Thompson and Sheppard haven’t been liabilities. Far from it.
Thompson is averaging 5.2 assists to just 2.6 turnovers-a solid ratio for a young guard still learning the nuances of NBA playmaking. Sheppard has been similarly steady, dishing out 3.3 assists against only 1.2 turnovers.
Those numbers suggest composure and control, which is no small feat for players thrust into a larger role than expected.
But numbers don’t always tell the full story. In several tight games this season, Houston’s offense has stalled when it mattered most.
One example Lowe highlighted was the overtime loss to the Denver Nuggets-a game where the Rockets were in position to win but couldn’t execute down the stretch. Another, even more glaring example?
The recent collapse against the New Orleans Pelicans.
Houston came out strong in that one, building an early lead and looking like the more composed team. But the second half was a different story.
The offense sputtered, and in the fourth quarter, the Rockets managed just 20 points compared to the Pelicans’ 36. Even more telling: they recorded only four assists in the entire quarter-just one each from Sheppard and Thompson.
That’s not just a stat; it’s a red flag.
The Rockets couldn’t get their stars the ball in their preferred spots. The rhythm was gone.
The decision-making faltered. And the Pelicans, sensing blood in the water, took full advantage.
This isn’t about blaming Thompson or Sheppard. They’ve both exceeded expectations and shown real growth.
But when you’re a team with playoff-and possibly championship-aspirations, the margin for error shrinks dramatically. And right now, Houston’s late-game offense is walking that tightrope without a safety net.
The front office faces a tough call. Bringing in a veteran, high-level point guard would almost certainly require giving up real assets-young talent, future picks, or both.
That’s a hard pill to swallow for a team that’s built a strong foundation through smart drafting and development. But this isn’t a rebuild anymore.
This is a team with real momentum and a real shot.
So the question becomes: how long can the Rockets afford to lean on the Sheppard-Thompson duo before the lack of a proven closer at the point catches up to them? Can they keep winning without VanVleet-or someone who brings what he does-when the postseason pressure hits?
For now, Houston is holding steady. But if they want to make the leap from playoff team to true contender, they’ll need to solve the VanVleet problem. And they’ll need to do it before the margin for error disappears completely.