Is Houston’s front office too bullish on Amen Thompson? Maybe. But there’s a real case for why the Rockets are so high on him, even if the public numbers don’t quite match the hype.
HoopsCollective’s Tim MacMahon reported that the Rockets’ own data has Thompson rated as one of the 10 most valuable players in the NBA. That’s a massive claim, and it doesn’t line up with the widely available metrics.
DataBallr’s Daily Plus/Minus, which is built to estimate player impact on expected team scoring differential per 100 possessions with teammate and opponent effects controlled, has Thompson at +1.2. That lands him in the 92nd percentile, which is excellent but nowhere near the top 10.
Dunks and Threes’ Estimated Plus/Minus tells a similar story, with Thompson at +2.7, also in the 92nd percentile.
So if the public numbers have him as a very good player but not an elite one, what explains the Rockets’ apparent confidence?
Part of it starts with how Thompson stacks up against his peers. In 2025-26 EPM, he compares favorably with other members of his draft class.
Only Victor Wembanyama, in the 99th percentile, and Brandon Miller, in the 95th, are higher among his draft mates. Miller had the benefit of an elite playmaker in LaMelo Ball, and Wembanyama is Wembanyama.
Thompson is also in the same percentile as Scottie Barnes and Franz Wagner, and ahead of Evan “The Rockets should have picked me” Mobley, who sits in the 89th percentile.
There’s also the fact that Thompson came into the league as a project. On athleticism alone, he’s 100th percentile.
The big question was always how much his skill package would catch up. On that front, the picture is mixed, but not static.
The handle, for one, has clearly come along. Thompson can now drive from the perimeter with the ball in his hands, and while it doesn’t exactly look graceful, it’s a far cry from the early days when cutting without the ball seemed like his only path from one end of the floor to the other.
Then there’s the shot, and that remains the issue hanging over everything. It was bad.
It is still bad. And it’s more likely than not going to stay bad.
The midrange results have gone up and down, while the three-point shot has bounced between “awful” and “Dear God, won’t somebody think of the children?”
Chip Engelland gives Houston reason for hope, because he has a reputation as one of the league’s best shot doctors. Even so, getting Thompson’s jumper to merely a normal level of bad would count as a win.
Until that changes, defenses can keep finding ways to make life difficult for Houston. Some of those coverages would be less effective if Thompson were not alongside a low-post big as the team’s second-best offensive player, but the larger problem is still obvious: if Thompson won’t shoot, opponents can live with it and load up elsewhere.
That’s why putting him in a reasonable top 10 remains a stretch. The Rockets may be trying to send a message by letting MacMahon’s report out, and they almost certainly have no interest in moving Thompson for market value anyway.
In Other News...
Rockets Face A Kevin Durant Debate That Could Reshape Their Core
Kevin Durants name keeps surfacing in Houston conversations because the Rockets are still trying to sort out how aggressive they want to be around a player who just turned in an All-NBA Second Team season at 37. He averaged 26.0 points, 5.5 rebounds and 4.8 assists last season, production that makes any discussion about his future feel less like idle rumor and more like a real front-office dilemma for a team weighing its timeline against star power.
The debate gets even sharper when other teams enter the picture, with the Knicks among those being floated as a possible landing spot if the Rockets ever decide to move on. The fit and the cost would have to be sorted out carefully, and even around the league there is a sense that this is more of a later decision than a deadline rush, which leaves Houston with a complicated question to answer long before the market forces its hand. [Read more 🡒]
Rockets Fans May Hate Which Core Piece Gets Left Exposed
Adam Silvers latest update on possible NBA expansion has reopened a familiar what-if around Houston, even if nothing is close to official yet. With Las Vegas and Seattle still in the conversation but no final vote on the table, the Rockets suddenly have another layer of roster planning to think about, and the exercise is less about fantasy than it is about which young core pieces would be too valuable to risk.
Under the old 2004 expansion rules, Houston would have to make some hard choices about who stays protected and who gets left exposed. The obvious center of the discussion is the top of the roster, but the real discomfort comes after that, when the margin gets thin and the final protected spots start to matter. For a team trying to build around its core, the possibility of losing a useful piece for nothing is exactly the sort of complication that makes expansion talk feel a little too real. [Read more 🡒]
Rockets Just Got A Major Vote Of Confidence In Their Future
ESPNs latest future power rankings offered a clear sign that the Rockets are viewed as one of the NBAs most promising long-term bets. The list evaluates more than just where a team stands today, weighing roster upside, draft capital, coaching and front-office strength, financial flexibility and market appeal, and Houston checked a lot of the right boxes.
The Rockets drew strong marks for their collection of young talent and the depth of their draft assets, while veterans such as Fred VanVleet help round out the outlook. For a franchise trying to turn potential into sustained wins, that kind of national recognition matters, even if the real test is still coming as the roster continues to develop and the Western Conference keeps tightening around it. [Read more 🡒]