The Houston Rockets are in the part of the timeline where making the playoffs stops being the finish line.
Barring a catastrophe, they should be back in the postseason in 2026-27. But that alone won’t cut it anymore.
If they don’t win a series, the conversation shifts fast, and the pressure to make major systemic changes gets real. That could even mean firing Ime Udoka, though that’s a topic for another day.
For now, the path is pretty clear: the Rockets have enough talent to get at least to the second round. After the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder, they should be able to beat anybody in a playoff series. The newly formed Timberwolves would like a word, and Jokic is still a Nugget, but the bigger point stands - this team has a real chance if the pieces line up.
The first requirement is simple: better shooting.
And yes, that sounds painfully obvious. But the issue is less about accuracy than volume.
Houston finished 10th in three-point percentage in 2025-26 at 36.4%, yet ranked 28th in three-point attempts per game at 31.5. That’s the bottleneck.
The Rockets can make shots. They just need to take more of them.
Fred VanVleet should help there. He attempted 7.7 threes per game in 2024-25, and more of that would be welcome. Reed Sheppard could also be part of the answer if his role grows, though that gets complicated with VanVleet and Marcus Smart both in the picture.
Then there’s Alperen Sengun, who could stand to get one more three up per game and, ideally, hit more of them. Amen Thompson is still too far from being a credible shooter to really count on in that area.
And Kevin Durant? It would be ideal if he nudged his shot profile toward what this roster needs, but that’s a big ask.
He has spent his career being the perfect shot creator, and now he’s on a team that needs fewer mid-range looks and more threes. He’s probably too seasoned to suddenly become a different player.
Wherever the Rockets find those extra threes, they need them.
The second key is veteran health.
That one barely needs explaining either. Durant played 78 games last season, which is excellent - until you remember he was largely unavailable in the playoffs when it mattered most.
VanVleet, meanwhile, appeared in 0 contests. Can he handle back-to-backs?
Can Steven Adams?
And of course, all of that only matters if the younger players are ready to carry more of the load when the time comes.
That brings us to the third key: a breakout season.
Sengun still hasn’t put together a year where he fully maximized his impact on both ends. Thompson hasn’t either. With Thompson’s fresh extension, those two now make up roughly 40% of the team’s cap space, which makes them the obvious names to watch.
But they aren’t the only ones who could move the needle.
Jabari Smith Jr. has long looked like a possible late bloomer, and this would be a pretty good season for that bloom to show up. Reed Sheppard could matter more if he becomes less of a defensive target. Tari Eason has shown more ability to get to his midrange jumper than some fans have given him credit for, though getting back to his previous defensive impact would probably be enough on its own.
In the end, the cleanest version of this is also the most obvious one: Thompson or Sengun goes from “fringe All-Star” to “fringe All-NBA.” If Smith Jr. jumps from “fringe starter” to “fringe All-Star,” that would help too.
The Rockets need their veterans to stay healthy. They need more threes. And they need one or more of their young players to take the kind of leap that changes the ceiling of the whole team.
In Other News...
Rockets Just Made A Huge Statement About Amen Thompsons Future
Amen Thompsons rise in Houston has moved from promise to priority, with the Rockets locking in the former No. 4 pick as a central part of their long-term plan. Over his first three seasons, Thompson has already put himself on a very short list of young players whose impact stretches well beyond scoring, earning All-Defensive First Team honors and logging more minutes than anyone else in the league last season.
For a Rockets team built around a fast-growing young core, the agreement sends a clear message about where the franchise believes Thompson fits. The extension will begin after his current rookie contract, giving Houston stability around one of its most important pieces while also signaling confidence that his two-way value is only going to keep climbing. [Read more 🡒]
Rockets Just Made Amen Thompson Their Future Centerpiece
Amen Thompsons rise from high-upside prospect to one of the Rockets defining players has moved quickly enough to reshape the franchises long-term picture. Over three seasons, he has taken on a bigger role in Houston, earned All-Defensive first-team honors and even led the NBA in total minutes played in the 2025-26 season, a sign of how central he has become on both ends of the floor.
The Rockets have now locked in that trajectory with a new rookie-scale extension, making a clear bet that Thompson is more than just part of the core - he is one of the players around whom the next era will be built. It is the kind of move that settles one question while pushing the real ones further down the road: just how high his ceiling goes, and how quickly Houston can turn that into wins. [Read more 🡒]
Rockets Just Made Their Biggest Bet Yet On Amen Thompson
Amen Thompsons rise has gone from promising to unavoidable, and the Rockets have now put a major stamp on that belief. After showing enough in his early days to convince the front office he can be part of the franchises core, Thompson has settled in as one of the most important young pieces on a roster still being shaped around upside, athleticism and long-term growth.
Houston is betting that Thompsons current skill set is only the beginning, because the real appeal is what he could become as the team pushes toward contention. The commitment also puts him near the top of the payroll picture, a sign of how much the Rockets value his trajectory and how central they expect him to be when the next version of this team is ready to matter. [Read more 🡒]