ESPN’s latest summer forecast has the Houston Rockets finishing tied for third in the Western Conference in 2026-27, landing at 51-31 in a crowded upper tier of the league.
That projection puts Houston level with the Denver Nuggets and just behind the San Antonio Spurs at 62-20 and the Oklahoma City Thunder at 60-22. It also gives the Rockets one of the better records in the NBA overall, tied for fifth-best with Denver.
In ESPN’s breakdown, Michael C. Wright points to a Rockets group that could keep climbing in Year 2 with Kevin Durant.
He wrote: "The West goes through either Oklahoma City or San Antonio, but don't count out Houston. The Rockets expect to take another step in Year 2 with Kevin Durant, bolstered by the return of guard Fred VanVleet and continued improvements from Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard."
Houston has now finished 52-30 in each of the last two regular seasons. Last year’s 52-win team was powered by the All-Star pairing of Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun, even though the Rockets were hit hard by long-term injuries to VanVleet and Steven Adams.
That picture changes entering this season. VanVleet and Adams are expected to be healthy when training camp opens, and the offseason addition of veteran guard Marcus Smart is expected to deepen the roster.
At first glance, a dip from last season’s win total might look odd. But ESPN’s forecast also notes the possibility of more league-wide parity in 2026-27 after the draft lottery reform, which is intended to cut down on tanking by non-playoff teams.
That leaves open the idea that Houston could be better without that improvement showing up cleanly in the standings. ESPN’s full summer forecast places the Rockets behind only the Spurs, Thunder, and the East’s top two teams, the Pistons and defending champion Knicks, both projected at 53-29.
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