The Rockets are heading into the 2026-27 season with a familiar kind of pressure: good enough to matter in the regular season, not yet proven enough to be trusted when the bracket tightens. Houston won 52 games last year and finished fifth in the Western Conference, but the ending was blunt. The Luka Doncic-less Los Angeles Lakers knocked them out in six games in the first round, and that disappointment still hangs over everything.
Now the league has put the new schedule on the board, and Houston’s first test comes on October 21 at home against the Dallas Mavericks at 7:30 PM E.T. That opener kicks off a season the Rockets hope looks a lot different from the one that just slipped away.
A big reason for that optimism is health. Fred VanVleet’s ACL injury before the 2025-26 season changed the shape of Houston’s year from the jump.
The Rockets badly needed a point guard who could steady the offense and open things up for the rest of the roster, and losing him left them scrambling. He missed the entire season, and his absence showed up again in the playoffs, where the late-game offense fell apart and the Lakers kept taking advantage of Houston’s lack of spacing.
This time, VanVleet should be back in the mix. The Rockets may need to manage his workload, but the expectation is that he’ll be available often enough to make a real difference and qualify for postseason award consideration. Just as important, his presence gives Houston a much better balance.
Steven Adams is another key piece. He was a big part of what made the Rockets such a difficult team to deal with, especially because he helped them win the possession battle with his offensive rebounding.
When he went down with a season-ending injury in January, Houston lost a lot of the physical edge that gave opponents problems. He’s expected to be healthy for training camp, though the Rockets will be careful with him and need him on the floor most nights if they want to push closer to contender status.
The offense should look better simply because the team is healthier. Houston posted a miserable 105.2 offensive rating in its six-game playoff loss to the Lakers, and that number reflected how badly the Rockets missed Durant, VanVleet and Adams.
But even with VanVleet sidelined, Houston still had one of the league’s better offenses when Adams was on the court. With Adams expected to be available for most of the season, the regular-season attack should climb again.
There’s also more internal growth coming. Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard are expected to take another step, and Jabari Smith Jr., still just 23, has room to keep improving. Durant should benefit too, because having a real starting-caliber point guard setting the table should make life easier for him and cut down on the turnovers that showed up too often last season.
Alperen Sengun remains the anchor of the scoring load. The expectation is that he’ll clear 20 points a night and get close to 10 rebounds, which gives Houston a reliable offensive base no matter what else is happening around him.
Of course, the Western Conference is crowded, and that means the Rockets will keep showing up in trade talk. One name that will come up is Kyrie Irving.
Dallas has not indicated any desire to move him, preferring to see what the roster looks like when the 34-year-old returns, but with the Mavericks in the early stages of a rebuild around Cooper Flagg and Irving entering the final year of his deal, it makes sense to at least listen. Houston has first-round picks to offer, and Irving would give them more upside than VanVleet if both players are back to full strength.
He also has history with Durant, and the two remain friends.
Still, Houston may decide the safer move is to keep the group intact rather than disrupt the locker room in the middle of the year. If that’s the path they choose, the Rockets still have enough to stay near the top of the conference race.
They have high-end scoring with Durant and Sengun, defensive toughness and connective pieces in Thompson, Tari Eason and Marcus Smart, and more upside left in Reed Sheppard. Add in the grit that VanVleet and Adams bring back to the rotation, and the Rockets should be good for at least 52 wins again. That would put them in the mix for a top-four seed in the West and homecourt advantage in the first round.
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Mike DAntonis Hall Of Fame Moment Brings Rockets Fans Back to Harden Era
Mike DAntonis Hall of Fame induction served as a reminder of how much of the Rockets most explosive modern basketball still traces back to his time in Houston. Enshrined as a contributor for helping shape the NBAs current offensive era, DAntoni built a resume that already included two Coach of the Year awards, and Houston ended up being where he posted the highest winning percentage of his coaching career.
His Hall speech naturally pulled Rockets fans back into the Harden years, especially when DAntoni credited James Harden for influencing the way he thought about the game. For Houston followers, it was a familiar connection between coach and star, and a nod to an era that changed the franchises identity even if the bigger question of how that team should be remembered still hangs around. [Read more 🡒]
Mike DAntoni Still Sparks One Big Debate For Rockets Fans
Mike DAntonis time in Houston still gets talked about because his offense changed the way the Rockets played and, in some ways, the way the league talked about offense. His approach put the ball in the hands of lead guards such as James Harden and leaned hard into pace, spacing and shot selection, creating some of the most distinctive basketball the franchise has seen in recent memory. Even now, his name comes up whenever fans compare him with other Rockets coaches and weigh how much of the teams modern identity can be traced back to his system.
The debate, though, has never really gone away because style and results do not always travel together cleanly. DAntonis offense helped shape a modern NBA playbook, but his critics still point to the 2017-18 playoffs and the questions that lingered about in-game adjustments when the stakes were highest. For Rockets fans, it leaves his legacy in a familiar place: admired for the innovation, argued over for what it did not quite deliver. [Read more 🡒]
Reed Sheppard Faces A Tougher Rockets Reality Than Ever
Reed Sheppard enters the next phase of his Rockets career with a very different backdrop than the one he had when Houston drafted him third overall. He showed real progress last season, but the postseason also exposed how much more he needs to grow, especially on the defensive end, if he is going to become the kind of reliable piece the team wants in a bigger role.
The pressure only increases with the way the roster has shifted around him. Houston has brought in Marcus Smart, and Fred VanVleet is expected back from injury, which gives the Rockets a crowded guard group and leaves Sheppard fighting for every opportunity. For a young player whose development matters to the teams long-term ceiling, the challenge now is less about potential and more about proving he can carve out a place when the rotation gets tighter. [Read more 🡒]