Reed Sheppard’s first season in Houston gave the Rockets plenty to think about, even if his defense kept him from being a clean, no-doubt answer every night. The overall picture was still positive. Houston went 17-4 when Sheppard was in the starting lineup, compared with 35-26 when he wasn’t, a split that works out to an 81 percent winning percentage versus 57 percent.
The biggest thing Sheppard brought was shooting. He was the Rockets’ best long-range threat, knocking down 39.4 percent of his threes on seven attempts per game.
That kind of volume matters, and so does the way it bends a defense. Sheppard’s “gravity” pulled help defenders toward him and opened space for everyone else, though it often felt like Houston didn’t fully cash in on that skill in a roster that badly needed outside shooting.
His playing time was solid for a second-year player - 26.2 minutes per game - but it still looked like there was more available. Ime Udoka never quite seemed to unlock everything Sheppard could offer, especially when it came to maximizing that perimeter threat.
The production was real. Sheppard finished sixth in NBA Sixth Man of the Year voting after averaging 13.5 points, 3.4 assists, 2.9 rebounds, 1.5 steals and 0.7 blocks per game. When he started, those numbers jumped to 15.4 points, 4.9 assists, 3.9 rebounds, 2 steals and 1 block per game.
Defense is the swing skill here, and it’s been the main reason Sheppard hasn’t forced his way into a bigger role already. The tape has its rough moments; the one-on-one work can look shaky, and there are plenty of clips where he gets beat.
But the broader numbers paint a more useful picture. He posted a +1.5 defensive box plus-minus, which was second on the team, a 112 defensive rating, and 3.1 defensive win shares, fifth on the roster and just behind Kevin Durant’s 3.2 despite Durant playing far more minutes.
That matters because it suggests Sheppard doesn’t have to be a shutdown defender to help a good defense. His quick hands and knack for piling up steals and blocks give him a path to being useful on that end, even if he isn’t a classic stopper. In other words, he can be part of a strong team defense if the structure around him is right.
Houston did not exactly clear the runway for him, though. Marcus Smart is in the mix for guard minutes, Fred VanVleet is back, and Bogdan Bogdanovich was added in hopes of giving the Rockets more shooting around the perimeter. Sheppard is going to have to earn everything.
Still, there are reasons to believe the next step is coming. He looks bigger and stronger, which should help at the point of attack, and he now has another year of confidence behind him. If he can keep the three-ball humming, sharpen the defense and keep growing as a playmaker while VanVleet and Smart handle plenty of the ballhandling burden, Sheppard could absolutely push Udoka into giving him even more.
He just turned 22, and the upside is still very much there. 2026-2027 feels like a perfectly reasonable time for the breakout to arrive.
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Still, Durants presence has come with a heavier conversation attached, one that has lingered through the offseason as trade speculation keeps circling. Houston is expected to keep him at least through next summer, but the larger question is how much of the Rockets leadership load he should be asked to carry once the roster is back to full strength, especially with Fred VanVleets return giving the team another experienced voice in the mix. [Read more 🡒]