The Houston Rockets are sitting fourth in the Western Conference at 9-3, and Jabari Smith Jr. has been a real part of that early push. Through the opening stretch, he’s putting up 16.8 points and 6.6 rebounds per game, giving Houston another steady piece in a strong start.
Smith came out of the gate with a 30-point game, then settled back into the kind of production he’s been known for. Even so, there’s enough in his play right now to make you wonder how much more is still there. At 23, he’s flashing the kind of upside that has people talking about All-Star potential, even if the bigger leap may still be ahead.
One view on Smith’s ceiling is pretty clear: he could establish himself as one of the NBA’s top 100 players this season. Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun are the Rockets’ strongest All-Star candidates, but Smith has room to put up career-best numbers if he keeps trending the right way.
“I’m a big believer in Jabari Smith Jr. and I think his ceiling for this season is that he can be the third best player on the team behind Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun.
He's already shown some of what he can do offensively and I think there's another level he can go to, particularly in terms of his shooting. He’s shooting a career best 42 % from deep, and he needs to sustain that.
I want to actually see him be more aggressive, he’s taking the same amount of field goal and three-point attempts as last season, he’s just shooting better. Smith’s got the physicality and the skill to create mismatches and I'd like to see him do that more often.
With Durant and Sengun getting so much of the spotlight then Smith should have absolutely ample opportunity to get going. If he can become that consistent third option on both sides of the floor then I think Houston becomes an even more dangerous team in the West.”
That’s where the real test starts. The regular season has shown Smith can give Houston useful scoring and valuable perimeter shooting, but the next step is about whether that translates when the games tighten up.
“This is what it comes down to for every core Rockets player now: the playoffs. So while Smith is off to a strong start, and his perimeter shooting prowess has been particularly welcome, his true ascent can't be proven yet.
When the postseason comes, will Smith get the tough rebounds? (He's still somewhat deficient in that area).
Will he take some scoring burden off Durant when teams load up on the lanky forward? And can Smith's switching ability make the Rockets dynamic defensively, even against the elite bigs and wings in the West?
That's when we will know if Smith has risen to the level of his draft position, as a winning starter on a contender.”
In Other News...
Fred VanVleet May Be Changing Everything For Houstons Offense
Fred VanVleets return has given Houston a steadier look on offense, and the early results have shown up in the standings. After missing the previous season, he is back in the mix and helping the Rockets to a 9-3 start while the attack looks less dependent on any one option. The veteran guard has also talked about the recovery process and the way he is fitting back into the flow, which matters for a team trying to build something more durable than a hot opening stretch.
The bigger picture is how the Rockets are spreading the load. Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun have formed a productive two-man game, and VanVleets presence has helped round out a more balanced approach around them. For Houston, that kind of offensive structure can be the difference between a good run in November and something that holds up when the schedule gets tougher, which is why his role is worth watching closely. [Read more 🡒]
Rockets Face One Big Dejounte Murray Question At 9-3
Dejounte Murrays name has started to surface in Houston conversations again, and it is easy to see why. He has a past connection with Ime Udoka from their Spurs days, and Murray recently revisited the respect Udoka earned as an assistant in San Antonio. With Murray now in New Orleans and reportedly wanting out, the idea of a reunion in Houston has enough logic to keep circulating, especially for a Rockets team off to a strong 9-3 start.
The bigger issue is what Houston would be willing to put on the table if the front office ever decided to push in. Fred VanVleet has been one of the reasons the Rockets have looked so steady early, and his presence has mattered as much for what he brings in the locker room as for what he does on the floor. Even with the assets to chase a deal, Houstons hesitation around moving him leaves the Murray question hanging over the team without an obvious answer. [Read more 🡒]
Rockets Offense Suddenly Looks Real In A Way Fans Havent Seen
The offense has taken on a very different look in Houston, and the early results are impossible to ignore. The Rockets are sitting third in offensive efficiency, a sharp change for a group that has spent recent seasons trying to find a cleaner, more reliable way to score. The ball is moving more, the possessions look less cramped, and Alperen Sengun has become a central part of that shift with a career-best season as a passer.
What makes the whole thing feel real is how the supporting details are starting to line up around him. Houston is getting more from beyond the arc, both in volume and accuracy, while leaning less on isolation-heavy basketball that too often stalled the attack before. For a team that has been searching for an identity on that end, the question now is not whether the offense can look better in stretches, but how sustainable this new version can be over a longer run. [Read more 🡒]