Friday night in Lubbock brings one of the Big 12’s biggest early-season tests, with No. 22 Houston and No. 13 Texas Tech both walking in at 2-0 and carrying a lot more than just a conference opener on their backs.
Texas Tech enters as the favorite, with ESPN giving the Red Raiders a 75.7 percent chance to win and oddsmakers listing them as 7.5-point favorites. Even so, the matchup has drawn plenty of national attention, and Houston is getting real consideration as a team that could spring the upset.
The Houston Cougars on SI staff is split on how this one plays out, but the common thread is clear: Houston has a legitimate shot to make things uncomfortable for Texas Tech.
One view sees this as the biggest challenge Houston will face all season, and potentially the program’s biggest win under coach Willie Fritz if the Cougars can finish it off. That outlook centers on the idea that Houston has made major strides from last year, especially up front.
The trenches, according to that prediction, will decide the game. Houston’s offense is expected to do enough to win a tight one, with senior quarterback Conner Weigman delivering a solid performance, a couple of touchdowns and plenty of work with his legs.
A stronger offensive line could also help Houston find some rhythm on the ground. Defensively, the Cougars’ experienced secondary is expected to limit Texas Tech’s passing game with junior quarterback Will Hammond, while Houston’s No. 1 run defense so far should have its moments.
Another staff prediction leans the other way, saying Texas Tech’s talent edge and home-field advantage should be enough to keep the Red Raiders’ winning streak over Houston intact. That take notes Houston may have closed the gap in the trenches, but also points to the possibility that Texas Tech has been a little flat early against weaker opponents.
A third prediction lands on Houston, citing the way the Cougars responded after their dominant 77-6 win over Southern. The argument there is built on Houston’s advantage up front, with the Cougars having allowed only 20 rushing yards and Texas Tech still searching for a reliable ground game. That same view also says the Red Raiders’ defense gave up too many yards to Oregon State and may have trouble slowing Houston’s offense, while Texas Tech’s inability to run the ball should make things easier for the Cougars defensively.
A fourth prediction also backs Houston, with the key being whether the Cougars can stretch the field. That outlook says Houston should lean on the pass, with a run game working alongside it, and points to Texas Tech’s struggles against Oregon State through the air. With receivers like Amare Thomas, Trent Walker and Koby Young in the mix, Weigman could pile up 300 yards or more, as long as Houston’s secondary cleans up its mistakes.
In Other News...
Houston Gets A Rare Shot To Change Everything Against Texas Tech
Houston finally gets a rare chance to flip the script when it meets Texas Tech in a ranked showdown that carries more weight than a typical early-season test. The Cougars enter at No. 22, the Red Raiders at No. 13, and the matchup comes with the kind of stakes Houston has been chasing as it tries to build momentum and establish itself in the Big 12 race.
The series history still tilts in Houstons favor by a sliver, but Texas Tech has owned the recent run, winning the last seven meetings and entering as the favorite. ESPNs matchup projection reflects that edge, but Houston has a chance to move to 3-0 and claim an early foothold in a conference picture that could get crowded fast. [Read more 🡒]
Texas Tech Already Faces An Early Big 12 Reality Check
Before full league play settles into its usual grind, the Big 12 is already offering a useful early snapshot of where a few teams stand, including Houston. The leagues footprint keeps stretching in interesting ways, too, with Arizona State and Kansas set to meet at Londons Wembley Stadium in the conferences first game in England, a reminder that this season is about more than just the standings that will eventually shape it.
For Houston, Texas Tech, Arizona State and West Virginia, the next stretch matters because it starts to separate hopeful talk from actual readiness. Each of those programs is heading into games that should say plenty about how prepared they are for the demands of full Big 12 action, and for the Cougars in particular, that means paying close attention to the kind of week-to-week reality check this conference can deliver early. [Read more 🡒]
Baylors Quarterback Uncertainty Just Got Bigger Entering Week 3
Week 2 brought a little more clarity around the Big 12 quarterback race, but it also left a few programs sorting through fresh uncertainty. Baylor spent the week dealing with DJ Lagways injury, while UCF had its own concern with Alonza Barnett, and both situations shaped the conversation as the league heads into a loaded Week 3 slate. Add in conference showdowns and nonconference games against Power Four defenses, and the pressure on quarterbacks around the league is only getting sharper.
For Houston, the bigger picture is less about one isolated result than where the Cougars fit in a conference that is already separating its signal-callers from the pack. The updated top eight entering Week 3 reflects which quarterbacks have steadied their teams and which ones are still fighting through injury or inconsistency, and the next round of games will give plenty of those names another chance to change the order. Even with Baylors situation hanging over the week, the broader quarterback hierarchy is still very much in flux. [Read more 🡒]