Houston’s matchup with No. 18 Oklahoma State this weekend at TDECU brings a ranked-team test with plenty of clean, specific answers for both sidelines. If the Cougars want to keep the season moving in the right direction, the blueprint starts with disrupting Drew Mestemaker and forcing the Cowboys out of rhythm.
That begins up front. Mestemaker has looked every bit like a quarterback scouts are tracking, coming off a strong stretch in his first season as a starter at North Texas and carrying that production into his new home.
Over his last three games, he has completed 59 of 77 passes for 1,021 yards and 10 touchdowns with only one interception. He’s been far more ordinary when pressure gets home.
When kept clean, he completes 75.2 percent of his throws. Under pressure, that number falls to 46.9 percent.
For comparison, Conner Weigman goes from 69.2 percent when clean to 56.3 percent when pressured.
Mestemaker’s style makes him a tough target, too. He stands in and delivers throws with defenders in his face or even hanging on him, and he trusts his arm strength to fit passes into tight windows.
That confidence can create openings for the defense. Five of his 55 incompletions have been intercepted, and Houston should have chances to make him pay if the rush gets there.
That’s not a crazy expectation, either. Opposing defenses have reached Mestemaker 14 or more times in three of five games, and UCF got to him 14 times last week.
Houston also has to deal with Caleb Hawkins, who has been hard to bring down throughout his career and has been especially slippery this season. According to PFF, he has forced 26 missed tackles, and 370 of his 524 rushing yards have come after contact.
The first defender has to finish the play. If Hawkins keeps slipping through arm tackles, Oklahoma State can stay balanced, control the clock and lean on a run game that opens everything else up.
That run threat matters because Mestemaker has been highly effective in play-action. In those situations, he is 47 of 60 for 765 yards and nine touchdowns.
So the Cougars need to keep Oklahoma State behind the chains and force more obvious passing downs. That would let Houston hunt the quarterback and reduce the damage from the Cowboys’ ground game.
When Oklahoma State does throw, Wyatt Young deserves constant attention. He’s the team’s leading receiver with 462 yards and ranks second in targets, and he can line up all over the field.
He hasn’t taken a snap at quarterback in college, but he did play the position in high school. The production is what really jumps off the page: 4.28 yards per route run, a number that puts him in striking range of some of the nation’s most efficient receivers.
For context, Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith averages 5.42 and Oregon State’s Jesse Legree sits at 4.76. Houston’s best, Patrick Overmyer, is at 2.54.
On the other side of the ball, Houston’s offense does not need a makeover. The main job is to protect the quarterback and keep doing what has worked.
Oklahoma State’s most productive pass rusher has been Jaleel Johnson, who has 16 pressures and two sacks, so he’s the defender the Cougars need to account for most. Houston has done a good job of keeping Weigman clean, and there’s reason to believe that can continue.
The Cougars can also attack Oklahoma State where UCF found some success: on the perimeter. Quarterback runs and plays that stretch the field outside appeared to bother the Cowboys, and the pass game found room on quick screens and on throws that forced Oklahoma State defensive backs to fight through blocks. Amare Thomas could benefit from early touches in space and the chance to create something after the catch.
The bigger theme for Houston’s offense is simple enough: don’t overcomplicate it. The Cougars have been effective, and there isn’t much reason to reinvent things now.
Keep using Patrick Overmyer over the middle, work Amare Thomas back into the mix, and let the ground game do its usual work. Running the ball well has been a constant, and it remains one of the easiest ways for Houston to keep drives alive and keep the Oklahoma State offense sitting on the sideline.
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Willie Fritz Is Making A Big Home Field Push For Houston
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Houston Athletics is layering in a full-night experience to match the stakes. The home slate against a ranked opponent will include discounted beers, a pregame concert in Cougar Alley, a drone show at halftime and during quarter breaks, and a $1,000 student scholarship giveaway during the game, all aimed at making the building feel as energized as the moment demands. [Read more 🡒]