Colorado’s path to an upset over Houston on Friday is narrow, but it isn’t empty. The Buffaloes are staring at a must-win stretch if they want to keep their bowl hopes alive, and ESPN analytics give them only a 17 percent shot against the No.
17 Cougars. Still, there are a few pressure points that could tilt the night in Colorado’s favor.
One of the biggest is the setting itself. Colorado has already shown it can hang around in these late-night Folsom Field games, even if the results haven’t broken its way under coach Deion Sanders since Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter left town.
The Buffs pushed then-No. 25 BYU, then-No.
11 Utah and a tough 2025 Georgia Tech team deep into the night, losing each by one score and by a combined 13 points. That kind of game script matters here, especially with Houston on a short week and making the trip to Colorado on Thursday before adjusting to the altitude.
If the crowd gets rolling, Colorado can make that environment work for it. That’s the first real opening.
The second comes through the air. Houston’s pass defense has been a problem for a while now, and the numbers back it up: the Cougars are giving up 252.9 passing yards per game, which ranks fourth-worst in the Big 12. That’s the kind of weakness Colorado can target if it gets the right matchups.
Isaac Wilson has had his struggles throwing the ball this season, but the player to watch is wide receiver Joseph Williams. He’s delivered impactful performances no matter who’s lined up across from him, and if Houston’s secondary continues to leak yards, Williams could be in line for a big Friday night.
The third factor is Houston quarterback Conner Weigman, and whether Colorado can finally put him under real pressure. He’s been sacked only 10 times this season, though that may say more about the Cougars’ schedule than their protection. Colorado, meanwhile, brings one of the Big 12’s better pass-rush groups with 24 sacks, good for fourth in the conference behind Baylor, Texas Tech and Arizona.
That matters because Houston has only faced one of those teams so far - Texas Tech - and that game ended in one of the Cougars’ two losses. Weigman was sacked three times and coughed up a fumble against the Red Raiders’ defensive front.
Colorado’s edge rushers didn’t show much against Arizona State, but if they rebound, they can make this a much different game. For the Buffaloes, that’s the formula: ride the late-night atmosphere, attack a shaky secondary and force Weigman into a tougher night than he’s had in weeks.
In Other News...
Houston Finally Has Chendall Weaver But One Big Question Remains
Chendall Weaver is finally on the floor for Houston, and his debut came with the kind of energy the Cougars have been waiting to see. After a Texas District Court granted a temporary restraining order that made him eligible beginning with the second game of the season, Weaver made his first appearance against California and gave Houston a useful burst off the bench with six points, six rebounds and three steals in 15 minutes.
The catch is the clock is already ticking. The restraining order runs through Nov. 19, covering several upcoming games, and Weavers status will expire after that unless it is extended. For a Houston team trying to settle its rotation early, his immediate fit is encouraging, but the bigger question is whether the Cougars will have him beyond this short window. [Read more 🡒]
Houston Just Showed Why Its Ceiling Might Be Even Higher
Houstons trip to the Caesars Lake Tahoe Classic gave another reminder of why this group can make noise well beyond a routine nonconference win. The Cougars handled California 86-68 in Stateline, Nevada, and the game had the familiar Houston fingerprints all over it: pressure, disruption and enough transition offense to turn stops into separation. Senior forward Joseph Tugler and senior point guard Thomas Jr. were central to that formula, with Tugler bringing activity at both ends and Thomas steering the offense with poise.
What stood out most was how complete the performance felt. Houston piled up 14 steals, added seven blocks and turned defense into 20 fast break points, the kind of imbalance that can wear down an opponent before the second half even settles in. Thomas finished with 20 points and eight assists, while Tugler added 16 points and four blocks, a combination that hints at a ceiling this team may still be climbing toward as the schedule gets tougher. [Read more 🡒]
Arizona State Just Added To A Rivals Late-Season Mess
Arizona States 20-13 win over Colorado on Nov. 7 only tightened the screws on a Buffaloes season already defined by uneven play and shrinking margin for error. The loss exposed the same problems that have followed Deion Sanders team for weeks, from shaky offensive line work to quarterback decision-making and the lack of a dependable third option in the passing game.
Now Colorado has to navigate the rest of its schedule with bowl eligibility hanging in the balance, and the pressure only grows with No. 16 Houston looming as one of the tougher tests left. For the Cougars, it is the kind of late-season matchup that can carry real weight beyond the standings, because the Buffaloes arrive needing wins and answers in equal measure. [Read more 🡒]